Yes, start something about Tibet, and you are sure to draw attention .
They give the impression of being a block because they want to look like this. In the reality, that’s political fights after political fights. The difference with open countries is that everything is in zhongnanhai, secret, and that we can just try to guess what’s happening.
Finally, it’s just like China … it looks like a block, but it’s a very diverse place when people really talk to you.

As for the DL: hmm. I would think most Chinese know how he looks. You get pictures sometimes in the Chinese press describing him as a snake or something like that… in any case, I don’t know if it is Chinese or Western, but one thing I can tell you: this post has got more reads in one day than any thing I ever wrote before. Put DL, French and War together in one title is the secret to triple your traffic.

I think so too, but I believe the government is in a difficult position where it has to cater to both moderates and nationalists. Hu and Wen constantly have to toe the line but they won’t sacrifice any economic interests in the long run, which is why I believe this incident won’t have any long-term effects. Otherwise they would have had serious, probably secret, negotiations with the European side.

I just realized that a lot of Chinese actually don’t know what DL looks like, and it used to be the same way with the Taiwanese leaders. When a magazine for the first time had a picture of a Taiwanese politician, Lian Zhan, on its cover, a Taiwanese journalist went around asking Beijingers who they thought was in the picture. Most people said it was Chen Shui-bian. When the journalist asked one guy “do you really think it’s Chen Shui-bian”, the guy thought for a while and said:
- Well, Chen Bian-shui, then!

There is a very interesting post by Michael Pettis this week. He says: China as a net exporter has more to lose than to win in a dispute with the countries that buy its products.

IMO, China has an intelligent government, or at least some of the leaders in ZNH understand the situation well. This Dalai Lama incident has more to do with Chinese internal politics than anything else.

Everything has a price tag: well, some people think this is true. A different question is what price can China afford to pay.

I think unfortunately, from China’s POV, it can’t divide Europe by cancelling a meeting like this. China is attempting to override a sovereign nation’s foreign policy. Yes, European states would like China to help out like Japan is by making money available to the IMF, buying up bust companies, etc. But there are limits to what they will do in return for China helping out, not least because China is being hurt by the global crisis and it is in its own interest to contribute.

I remember back in 2005 China thought that it had a lifting of the arms embargo wrapped up. Hu then went on a tour promising $billion trade deals. When increasing opposition from the European Parliament and the US led to a delay of the embargo being lifted, and then canned, China couldn’t understand why. It had thrown a lot of money around, so surely it had paid more than enough to get what it wanted.

For some reason China thinks that everything has a price tag. Well that’s not the case, especially in the developed world. African states will bend over backwards in regards to foreign policy because many need the money. Europe is not nearly as desperate. Besides there isn’t that much that China can do. If someone else can’t pull them out of recession, no one can.

And if it was not enough, now I am trying to steal some commenters from their forum! (sorry FM)

* mode FQ on*
How can you dare to open your mouth when you filthy cave dwellers slaughtered noble knights very deceitfully! You are just a bunch of traitors that attack people in the mountain defiles! Don’t you see the truth that you and your violent rugby players are just a tool of dark forces of brutal Imperialism!!!
* mode FQ off*

More seriously, the FM staff is currently quite busy and is looking for writers. I think your excellent posts would be greatly appreciated. I move to a new job, so I might be quite busy next month, but I will write some ASAP.

PS. Where are the hordes of Chinese commenters? I’m just back home from the bar and I was kind of expecting to see loads of fenqing flames, my blog hacked and my human flesh searched for!

I agree with your views.
It has been a constant in the history of China (as old as the history of mankind … think about the Roman empire).
Additionally, a Chinese dissident in Paris has recently raised the fact that the social situation in China these days is very bad.
The only thing that the CCP is afraid of is a breakance of the social contract they have with the population … in that case, a nationalist push is perfectly in their interests.

Un saludo. BT.