I can’t wait to see the speech tonight. I have spent the whole midday lunch hour (and a bit more) tinkering with the NYT and others speech analysis sites. I have learnt more about the speeches of previous American presidents that I ever knew before. And in particular I have learnt one surprising detail.

Those who have been following this blog from the beginning might remember that initial article I wrote about the Crisis and the Great Wall of China, which was published/linked by a few of the big guys and helped put my English blog in orbit. Well, that post contained the old gag of Crisis and Opportunity -both words sharing one character in Chinese- which was at the core of its reasoning.

The detail I found with some embarrassment today is that this is a widely used rhetorical device in American politics, probably first included by JFK in a few of his speeches. Of course I never pretended I’d invented it myself,  I guess I just heard it somewhere, but I had no clue it was so well known. Following my internet search for the origin of the expression, I ended up in a very popular blog which is an authority in Language use, the Language Log. There I read that my wordplay was just is “a misperception”:  危机 (weiji) doesn’t really originate from “Dangerous opportunity”. Etymologically, that is.

I don’t mind some experts contesting the origin of the expression. Actually I hold my own opinion that, even if the strict etymology of the word is not “dangerous opportunity”, it is obvious to all Chinese that the character 机 of Crisis is part of the very common word 机会 (opportunity). Knowing how Chinese love playing with their language, it is certain that millions of times this parallel Crisis-Opportunity must have been drawn in China. A more interesting question is to know if this expression actually describes the Chinese character, which I hope is properly settled in that old post of mine.

But what I do find a bit embarrassing is to realize that half the World was already aware of my little Chinese wordplay that I thought so clever. To the point that even Homer Simpson knew:

Lisa:  Look on the bright side, Dad. Did you know that the Chinese use
       the same word for "crisis" as they do for "opportunity"?
Homer: Yes! Cris-atunity.

From chapter "fear of flying", 1994

And now, back to the Inaugural speech. I have to be off in a minute to our own inaugural party in Shanghai, but let me briefly comment that there is a slight chance that the Crisis-Opportunity gag will make it into the speech. After all, the time is exactly right, the Crisis is there, China as well, and many are speculating that Obama might echo Kennedy’s famous speeches.

Although, to tell you the truth, I very much doubt it. Obama is a better speaker than that, and beyond those old formulas. I am sure he is going to coin something big instead, one of those phrases that tomorrow people will be muttering in the office, and which for generations to come will be copied by lesser speechwriters (and bloggers) in search of inspiration…

Let’s see what happens.

We are at the beginning of a historic week, and I just can’t not write about Obama’s inauguration. This blog is also about changing the World, and there is a chance that this Tuesday will be one of those days that changes everything. Call me a dreamer, but I want to believe that this new president of the USA will lead us to a better World, one finally based on the Rule of Law and not on the force of a few bullies. One where Western countries will not need to ask anymore for political change from China, because all know there’s no better teaching than leading by example.

Looking around the China blogosphere, I see some of the early birds have already done their Obama posts. There is this comparison of Obama’s inaugural ceremony with emperor QianLong’s, and Chinamatic here takes a look at one hilarious letter by a school kid. But I must say that up to now my favourite Obama post has been this one by Global Post. (h/t Peking Duck). I always liked the idea of interviewing a taxi driver, especially the chatty Beijing ones. These people get masses of information from all sorts of sources and can provide the best radiography of society. In this case, the taxi they chose sounds a bit conservative. He wishes Obama “to value Harmony”.

Now, one thing you don’t want to miss is the inauguration speech this Tuesday. For local info, it will be Tuesday night 12:30 China time and 17:30 West Europe. Whatever happens afterwards, this speech has all the chances of becoming a classic of political speeches. I dare say it might also become the most read/watched speech of all times: I’ve never known so many people in Europe and China preparing to watch a speech by a US president. Thousands of Chinese listened already to the election speech: We saw the Sensitive, who cried with emotion; the Ambitious, attentive to every detail of Obama’s technique; the majority, jotting down the new English vocabulary.

For American readers these links probably look too obvious, but for the rest: check out some analysis of the speech by previous presidents’ speech drafters, and here more details of the ceremony. Will Obama mention directly his ethnic background? Will he finish with “God bless America”, or with “I love you guys”? A whole lot of things to watch for Tuesday evening.

And what has Chinayouren been doing this weekend in preparation of the Historic Week? Well, among other things, reading Obama’s book in stereo Chinese-English. I bought these two books at the little stall next to my place, initially with the intention of getting some bilingual material to practice reading, but eventually captivated by the book and reading it all straight to the end (in English). As for the Chinese version, I admit I skipped a few pages and ended up in the passages where Obama plays with “Ma-li-ya” and “Sa-Sha”, which contain a vocabulary more adapted to my level.

By the way, if you are one of the thousands of Chinese out there trying to get this book, I would not recommend buying the daoban (fake) translation, buy the real one published by Han Manchun instead. The fake can be seen all over the place, riding on a thousand tricycles in Beijing and Shanghai, but believe me, I have some very serious doubts regarding the translation they are using. More about fake books in the next chapter I am preparing for this week…

You know how Wen Jia Bao asked us this week to have “faith and determination“, and added that the “nation will be the first to recover” from the crisis and grasp the opportunities available. Then come the experts of the World Economic Forum, who are getting ready for their yearly skiing holiday, and they publish a prediction right on their front page:

Global Risks 2009: a new report from the World Economic Forum, identifies a deteriorating global economy, a hard landing in China…

In the report , which you can download here, they go on to speak of China 09 GDP of “6% or below”, a point which the international media is quick to report. How’s that for the confidence. Ouch, one 2 good points below the waistline of the CPC’s 8% , and right in the family jewels.

Mind you, I am not writing this to pick on Wen’s predictions. First of all, the WEF’s report is only making hypothesis, to see their possible impact on the World economy. Second, I think Wen would be as likely to get it right for China’s economy as the gurus of the WEF. After all, the CPC prepares its predictions with the advantage of insider information, and it suffers less distractions than the vedettes at the Convention of Dismalness.

On the other hand, it is a long time already since the Forum passed the heigh of its influence and it looks this year more irrelevant than ever. In the end, the important decisions for the World economy will be taken by Obama’s team and the CPC, and it is unclear how either of them will listen to the WEF. Most importantly, the role of the Forum as a brainstorming event has largely been taken over by the econobloggers, as we saw in this fascinating article you might remember from last month.

Inexplicably, we have not been invited to Davos this time, so we’ll hit the road in Shanghai instead and see how the faith and determination is doing, and whether there are signs of  faltering in the good old Shanghai shopping spirit. A big part of China’s economic Wall is made of the faith of its consumers, who are the ones supposed to make up for the lack of exports. Here’s how they are faring in Shanghai:

Nanjinglu: The usual mobs of shoppers and sellers in spite of the biting cold.

Xujiahui: It is difficult to walk the Street, the shops are as full as ever and the official sign on the Bridge reads: “Do Well Your Economic Survey, capture the situation and the strengths of the District, and promote the development of XuHui.” This district is also undergoing an economic survey, like the one done by these funny villagers, but hopefully using more standard statistical methods.

Sitting 牛: Hordes of consumers worship the goddess of consumption, the Sitting Cow.

We Hire – I got this last night right next to my place. I haven’t been keeping track of the changes these last weeks, but all I can say is that we still see many signs like this. The red character means: We hire.  1200RMB a month plus extras. Searched: waiters, shop manager, dish cleaners, etc.

So there you go, in Shanghai, in spite of some people getting worried and a few foreign startups having a hard time to meet ends, it looks like the F and D are still holding stong. Let’s hope they stay right up there throughout 2009, and we might avert this one of the Global Risks.

As I am writing this entry, 2008 has finished in China. Fortunately, we still have a few hours in Home Country to fit in my last 08 post before the evening aperitif. I take the chance to get back in action after this week’s holidays and do my little roundup of 2008.

It has been a good year to blog China. The Chinese have continued to amaze the World with their constant source of news. Successes, catastrophes, change; we’ve had our fair share in 2008. And everything seems to indicate that 09 will be every bit as bloggable. So stay tuned, China is still changing us, and I hope to be there to witness it next year too.

And now down to the hard numbers. I won’t go over the main events of 08, as more diligent bloggers have already done it while I slept. Instead, I just include below the latest results of my own  Chinanews-meter:

In case you haven’t been following, this chart shows the number of articles containing “China” over the last 128 years (from LaVanguardia). As I predicted a month ago, 2008 has beaten 2007 by one length. Bets are open for 2009, and my money is on the rise of China news. In spite of the crisis and Obama’s tough competition in the West, I am going for the 5,000 mark.

Ah, Christmas is a great time to be back home, but I’m missing China already. And if I believe my cell phone, China must be missing me too: There’s dozens of sms in characters coming in this week, offering Christmas wishes, readily made poems and quick no-questions-asked credit at 3% a month. I even received one unexpected proposal that filled my heart with joy: “Marry Christmas”. Thanks all for remembering me.

To the readers that have come into my garden these last days and found it deserted I dedicate this picture I took yesterday of The Shire. This is what I have been doing when I was not answering comments on the blog:

Today was a pretty stressful day in the office, but in between meetings I was able to join a lively discussion on the Fool’s Mountain about the latest Dalai incident.

To wit, the French President said he will meet the DL in Poland during a ceremony in honour of Lech Walesa. China immediately threatened EU with cancelling the 11th EU-China Summit this week, and has indeed cancelled it. BBC tells it here. Also see the reaction of Chinese netizens to Pomfret’s article and the account of Xinhua.

Here are my thoughts as posted on the Mountain (minus rants and comebacks):

Is China using France?

Is China using France strategically, as a wedge to divide EU, following the classic “divide and win” from SunTzu’s Art of War?

Could be, but this is nothing new, all the world powers use this old trick when negotiating with EU. The fact is China will listen or not to EU representatives depending on the power it perceives they have, and depending on China’s own interests. For economic aspects such as tariffs, EU does have power and will be listened. In other fields it can be completely ignored. Points to keep in mind:

1- The EU has a problem with unity, and this has nothing to do with China’s policies.

2- China has a problem to deal with DL, and this has nothing to do with the Sarko meeting.

3- Universal Rule in International Relations: If you need to distract attention bash the French.

4- DL is not a terrorist. Comparing him to bin Laden is low and slanderous.

5- China is crying for nothing: In Europe anyone could speak with the equivalent of DL.

For example, the president of the Basque Country (who actively demands independence from Spain) has met up with authorities of many countries and sends representatives regularly to support Basque industry in Shanghai. No whining from Spain, why? because unlike bin Laden, he does NOT support violence.

What are the consequences of this incident? And the real Reasons?

In fact, there shouldn’t be any serious practical consequence of missing this Summit. The real meeting is the one that will happen in April when the G20 + Obama meet to speak of the Crisis.

This little conflict with the French is just a classic IR trick to create some noise. Perhaps Zhongnanhai have decided that it’s time to rally the people in advance of the social shocks of the Crisis. Or perhaps they are preparing the way for a conflictive period in foreign affairs when China tries to implement protectionist/low RMB policies, strongly opposed by the West.

Chinese leaders are well known for thinking one step ahead. Hopefully I am wrong with this one.

Please comment. No swearwords.

This weekend the leaders of the most powerful countries in the world met up in Washington to discuss how they are going to pull us out of the big economic mess where we are stuck deeper day after day. After a refreshing dinner in the white house including quail, lamb and Vermont brie, the leaders were in a position to promise “vigorous efforts” to fight against the crisis.

Looking at the the reactions from within and without the Summit, it is surprising how peaceful it has been compared to others in the past. No protesters on the streets, no colourful accusations of irresponsibility, nobody even remembered to mention Irak or bash the French. The leaders of the world have understood that the time is not for funny gags. The financial crisis is looming on each of our countries, and we have to stand united. Are we turning the page into a new phase of collaboration in the international community?

For the moment,  these are the main points agreed upon:

• Stabilize banks and boost growth – This includes bailouts and Economic “stimulus”. There is no more than a general statement in this Area, no commitment by any of the States.
• Better Regulation of Financial Markets – Supervision of banks and credit-rating agencies, scrutinize executive pay, tighten controls on complex derivatives, etc. This one was pretty obvious.
• IMF Reform – This is were China and the other developing countries put pressure to have a voice in the exclusive US-EU club. It is likely that they will succeed, and IMF will gain some credibility from that (but gain in efficacity does not not necessarily follow)
• Commitment to an open global economy  – Free market, no barriers to trade or investment. A point that all countries big and small have agreed upon. Hopefully their policies will remain consistent with this statement.

In conclusion, nothing to write home about. What with all the Bretton Woods II measures that where going to change the economy of the XXI Century? Not yet. There will be a follow-up meeting in April 09, and by then some specific plans may be ready for discussion. There hasn’t been time to mature any serious ideas. And anyway, he who shall be in charge of leading the effort could not join the party this weekend.

Indeed, together with the Brie cheese and the lamb, there was a hot potato served for dinner last Friday. And one that nobody is eager to open up, but rather roll on swiftly from plate to plate until it gets to its final destination, president elect Obama. The minute he steps into his office in January it will be there waiting for him, wrapped up in Christmas paper.

In this sport of potato rolling, the Chinese have long been masters. Their words are measured and dictated by wisdom. Thus spake President Hu Jin Tao:

• Reform [of the international financial system] should be conducted in a comprehensive, balanced, incremental and result-oriented manner.
• A comprehensive reform is one that has a general design and includes measures to improve not only the international financial system, monetary system and financial institutions, but also international financial rules and procedures.
• A balanced reform is one that is based on overall consideration and seeks a balance among the interests of all parties
• An incremental reform is one that seeks gradual progress
• A result-oriented reform is one that lays emphasis on practical results.

This sounds very much like Deng’s “Groping stones to cross the river”, an approach which was very effecive to tackle a delicate process of transition like China’s, but not necessarily to avert a crisis. Some famous analysts have long been speaking against this kind of solution.

And then, one wonders how this fits with the aggresive stimulus package that was supposedly launched last week. That was certainly not an incremental announcement. But who knows, it is not for us mortal bloggers to understand the ways of the Popular Repubic.

Last weekend, as I was browsing the net for some material to get over my post electoral withdrawal, I came across this iconic Obama.

I didn’t know exactly what it was, but something in it looked very familiar. Very Chinese. I saved it in my Obama bookmarks, and didn’t think of it again until Sunday evening.

That was the evening when I went to the barber’s to have my hair uncut.

I like the barber down the road, I’ve been going there every month since I came to Shanghai, and by now he knows exactly what I like. This is a great advantage, because I am always at a loss when giving instructions to a Chinese hairdresser. I feel even more embarrassed when they proceed to show me pictures of men supermodels, and rather optimistically ask me to point at one of them.

But Wu Shifu will do none of that. He is a no nonsense professional, and he delivers 20 kuai worth of real styling value. A true perfectionist, he takes care of every detail and will not give up until every single hair is at the right lenght.  Every now and then he stops cutting and reaches for the little mirror with which he shows me around my own head, asking eagerly if all sides are well shaped, and secretly hoping that I will request some virtuoso manoeuvre, perhaps a re-balancing of my temples.

Like usual, last Sunday the man was doing a great job. When it was almost finished and he came up with the little mirror for the 5th time, I thought I might as well give him some little bit of satisfaction for the trouble. And, since we are at it, why not test him for Chinese characteristics.

- Is it OK this side? And here? And the top?

- Um, no, no. Too short over the top, I will have it a bit longer this time.

- Uh, er… longer what, here?

- Yes, please, can you do that?

- Yes we can!-  Snap, snap, snap.

And there he goes snapping away with his scissors, cutting the air close to my head in his efficient fashion, and probably thinking that if he goes on for long enough, my hair will have actually grown longer by the time he is done with it. After 5 minutes of cutting the air thin, while I watched the ultra boring Shenhua-Tianjin  on his TV, I decided that my hair was long enough already, and informed him thus.

- Thank you, master Wu, it looks much better now.

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