圣诞快乐大家。 伤心圣诞节对于中国来说，我们都爱这个国家，相信在自由，尊严和真理的人。

整整一年前，在圣诞节那天，我发表这篇文章关于刘宪章。 我是主动的关键原因是多方面的：它包含的矛盾，它是被动的，而不是主动，这不是一个以团结所有中国人的“宪章”。 但最重要的是，该文件的起草方式，确保它没有飞翔的机会。

这一举措实际上出生时死了，“联合国宪章”，甚至从来没有在09年初在中国的大课题，这是我们当时看了危机和刺激。 党已经从一开始就赢得了比赛，所以什么时候欺负刘现在，一年后呢？ 显然，只是为了树立一个榜样，以确保将关闭，其余的签名，并避免在未来几年内的新举措。 “杀了鸡来吓唬猴子”，中国传统的说。 ，这是不正义的，但一个恶心的黑手党技巧。

即使你不相信中国在民主，即使你认为（像我这样做），西方的虚伪政府给这里甚至没有教训，如果“宪章”可能不是最好的方式来实现的崇高原则它宣称。 即便如此，任何正派的人可以看到这样的文件不应该是一个被剥夺了自由人的一个原因。

党知道这一点，这是再次审查，趴在互联网上，从中国人民隐瞒其卑鄙。

现在这个故事已经拿起了CNN，它使一些噪音。 如果我们很幸运，这远远不够，甚至奥巴马可能会给我们一个难忘的线。 但它不会改变任何东西，因为这一切都是与中国打交道的一部分。 和句子是没有更多或更少比什么可以预计中国政府今天。

刘知道这口井，他决定去，尽管它。 那是因为他是一个理想主义者和英雄。 他将记住。

在这种情况下， 在这里 。 此外，从我自己的博客： 在这里 ， 在 这里和这里 。

这些原则，在中国于2008年出版的303勇士们：

自由 ，自由是普世价值的核心。 言论自由，新闻自由，集会自由，结社自由，在那里生活的自由，罢工，示威，抗议，其中包括自由，自由需要的形式。 没有自由，中国将始终保持远离文明的理想。

不是由一个国家赋予的人权。人权。 每个人与生俱来的尊严和自由的固有权利。 政府为保护其公民的人权存在。 由人民行使国家权力必须被授权。 在中国近代历史的政治灾害的继承是一个政权无视人权的直接后果。

平等。正直，尊严和自由，每个人，不论社会地位，职业，性别，经济状况，种族，肤色，宗教或政治信仰是任何其他的相同。 面前人人平等的法律和社会，经济，文化，公民和政治权利平等的原则必须坚持。

共和，共和，认为权力应政府和利益争夺的不同分支之间的平衡，应送达类似于中国传统的政治理想“在所有的公平性下天堂。”，它允许不同的利益群体和社会的集会，并与人各种各样的文化和信仰，行使民主自治和审议，以达到政府和自由和公平竞争的平等机会的基础上和平解决公共问题。

民主，民主，最根本的原则是人民主权和人民选择自己的政府。 民主具有以下特点：（1）政治权力开始与人民政权的合法性来源于人民。 （2）政治权力的行使通过人作出的选择。 （3）各级政府主要官员职位的持有人有决心通过定期的竞争性选举。 （4）尊重多数人的意志的同时，基本尊严，自由，人权和少数民族的保护。 总之，民主使政府成为一个现代化的手段“的人，由人民，为人民。”

宪政。宪政是通过法律制度和法律法规的实施，是宪法规定的原则规则。 这意味着自由和公民权利的保护，限制和界定合法政府的权力范围，并提供必要为这些目的的行政机构。

我是不是有我不知道比什么是记者。 但是，在现有信息的光，我认为这是值得看看有另一个事件，看看我们做它。 参考纽约时报图上的插图相结合的，这是很难怀疑中国共产党亲，和资料，包括证人的证词是关于详见已发表关于5月5日的事件。

这一切都开始在人民广场的抗议，随后沿解放西路，这是6.30左右满足人民武装警察浓度。 到这里一切都“正常”，在街头骚乱的逻辑：有冲突，可能有一些双方的受害者。 但解放路。 非常中央，很多人生活在那里，一定会发现“纽约时报证人至少数百人已被杀害或囚犯在这一点上提。

但事后，尤其是在8，沿团结和大宛道路的轴，该事件是不通过任何正常的社会秩序混乱的标准。 街头骚乱，可以像其他形式的暴力，有附带损害，但这种情况并非如此。 警方是不存在的，汉小怪不能一直在这么短的时间内举办，并解释这些死亡的唯一途径是，它是蓄意大规模的大屠杀平民居民和路人。 这是与在其他帐户的书面各种报纸一致。

123 *韩已或多或少各方所接受，作为最小的是惊人的数字的行动主要集中在5个小时的空间，在这样一个面积减少发生人员伤亡的初始计数。 在其他骚乱的地区，包括新疆，西藏或中国其他地区，我们可以看到，这个比例是完全超出范围。 这是不是在政治骚乱的斗争中的热量。 这是冷血的迫害，行动只能是痴迷者的工作。

谁是事件背后的

在其8月2日发行，香港新闻周刊“亚洲周刊” 采访 Heyrat孜，维吾尔记者，博客，和艾滋病活动家，什么样的人，谁是不太可能偏袒中国共产党。 heyrat谈到的Hizb，伊扎布特人伊斯兰，伊斯兰解放党，国际泛伊斯兰政党，这是正式的和平，但在欧洲煽动暴力的过去已在被告。 该组织已在新疆的传播非常迅速，在过去的十年。

作为一个在乌鲁木齐的见证，尼牙孜注意到许多示威者和宗教口号，在听到抗议的强烈喀什口音。 这使我想起所有的中国共产党称为东突伊斯兰组织，它实际上可能的威胁发言时间存在与否。 在任何情况下，确实存在一些激进组织清楚地看到，像攻击这一个 ，去年有16名警察被辗过后，冷冷地刀砍和轰炸。

没有证据，我不会指责任何团体，我会犯同样的“固体块”的思想昨天我批评自己。 但到现在我们已经看到，要任何诚实观察员好奇，它当然值得激进伊斯兰教在新疆的领域作进一步调查。 在阿富汗和巴基斯坦等国接壤的地区，它是所有不可想象的，失意的青年，他们越过边境的例子，发现在一个变态的宗教版本的逃生。

响应

中国政府处理危机的比较好，给定的情况下。 其实，主要的反对，人们可以使大多数西方读者喜欢想象相反：周日5日更多的力量应该被用来避免谋杀。

如果你想起来了，你可能会同意，中国共产党的领导是不正是理想的梦想家。 当他们让外国记者到一个地方，那是因为他们知道他们有什么可失去的，而这一次，他们必须一直非常有信心，他们没有责怪。 我们也不得不承认，即使在记者面前，它是在世界上大多数军队不寻常的展示这么多的纪律和克制 ，不分青红皂白对自己人民的种族主义攻击后的中国。

这种态度，这或许解释了为什么他们离开这么早的西方媒体的很大一部分被搞糊涂。 事实上，这是一些耐人寻味的，它可以使一些实力较弱的精神萎缩，来考虑，中国排在第二时间后，四川灾区证明， 有时候，一个独裁政权可以做的事情比一个民主国家。 这需要一些坚实的信念和了解一些自己的理想，能够在世界没有善恶模具。

在任何情况下，毫无疑问 - 西方媒体给了我 - 否则没有理由认为中国的媒体控制和适度的警察行动的双重方法产生最好的结果，在金融危机期间。 不用说，这只是一个短期公式的工程，遏制暴力，更需要从现在开始做，要真正解决新疆问题。 更多关于在未来职位的长期解决方案。

热比娅

我不会在这里浪费时间抹黑热比娅，因为从一开始，她败坏自己。 她没有提供依据，在所有她给媒体的信息，以及她的一些要求是如此荒谬的错误，它实际上是让我觉得她是无辜的：谁是它的业务的人不可能是这种恶劣的骗子。 唯一的解释是，她是完全无能。

点击图片，她的最新索赔的一个例子。

热比娅比什么，给人的印象是，她绝望的是看电视的时间。 她知道，她的成名时间运行结束，她被迫将以往更强的索赔，提高每个去的筹码，以吸引疲惫的观众。 作为博客Twofish的反映，如果她真的关心新疆的未来，她有可能抓住这个机会发送一个和平的讯息，并尝试连接时，他们遭到了残酷的攻击时，其余的中国，也许赢得了尊重温和派。

但已经有人像热比娅，成功的商人，在她的时间如何囚禁，然后发布了由中国共产党，作为事实上的维吾尔人代表结束了吗？ 热比娅被称为扮演一个角色，她扮演它只是罚款。 这是一个已经写入中国共产党，西方媒体和观众，由美国和NED的角色，资助她。 长的故事写在她到达之前，久经考验的情节，与市民的工作，将让所有人都满意。 一遍是达赖喇嘛的传奇，复制粘贴现在的编剧可以放松和享受他们的夏季假期。

热比娅，当然，除了这是没有达赖喇嘛，既不是她的事迹，也不站在她之间的维吾尔justifiy任何此类比较。

重要的问题

现在下降到了许多考虑的关键问题：热比娅在接触，甚至融资安排杀人的极端主义团体，或者是她，因为我怀疑，完全在地面上的现实的无知吗？ 我不认为我们永远也找不到了。 这是很难相信，非执行董事，由美国国会资助，赞助​​与恐怖主义有关联的人，但如果他们误，我肯定他们会照顾好隐藏所有的证据。

请注意，无论哪种方式，在NED不出来从这个故事非常好。 赞助机会获得自己的名字，而她冷冷地观察杀害几十跳是一个机会主义者，几乎在同一个国家民主基金会的目标。

但实际上，这是如此重要呢？ 我不认为如此。 热比娅不会持续，以及她是否有罪与否，花生，非执行董事支付她没有真正改变任何东西。 与她入住的外籍维吾尔族的热比娅世维会不可能控制在地面上的恐怖组织的运作。 而且，作为一个鼓舞人心的作用，我是很怀疑，她 - 一个女人，结过两次婚，业务和PC背景 - 永远年轻的伊斯兰激进分子。 她将肯定不会变成新的本·拉丹。

没有，对中国和世界的真正的问题是人：

W HO 7月5日的杀戮背后真的吗？ 囚犯将如何判断？ 中国共产党的种族间的政策是如何失败？ 这种故障是如何喂养一些暴力团伙的基地？ 什么是连接这些群体与伊斯兰恐怖主义和“基地”组织入党的概率是什么？ 为什么是中国的唯一安理会还没有收到来自伊斯兰主义的大规模攻击，尽管在长达一年的维吾尔人冲突的国家吗？

最后，是应该要回答所有这些问题的人吗？

*见下面我的意见，这个数字的基础上。

你一直在看新疆电视这些天吗？ 我是一个球迷。 这是新爱电视，浓缩了所有由中国官方媒体7月5日的事件后corniest努力促进和谐24-7。 微笑的孩子，华丽的舞蹈，讨论爱和团结的种族间的邻居协会长会议。 最好的服务与龙舌兰酒，柠檬，一粒盐。

但严重的。 这是一个月以来乌鲁木齐的事件，感觉像有很多分析方法。 所有的媒体渠道，红热了一个星期，但他们尽快街道上干涸的血液冷却下来，并没有新的见解是即将举行的。 太早辩论已被劫持的未经证实的索赔，像热比娅的机会主义者，和来自中国的可预测的响应。 谁失去了他们的生活在乌鲁木齐的爱好和平的维吾尔族和汉族应该得到更好的。

所以，是的，我有意识地看XJTV，我建议你做同样的。 对于缺乏任何更好，对其他媒体建立在抗议，中国和外国。 因为无论多么尴尬，XJTV的努力可能似乎，至少电视台正在做的工作。

新疆发生的事件更重要的比平淡无奇夏季覆盖会导致我们的想象。 这可能是最致命的单，已在中国自1989年天安门事件发生的政治骚乱。 它也是唯一的社会动乱，国际新闻界已获准从地面报告的重大案件。 并有重要的经验教训得出的经验，特别是在1个领域 - 媒体和2 - 中国的政策。

中国媒体

我和我将永远是对国家控制的媒体，我尊重这里的每个人，包括一些党员，同意我的观点：没有责怪的自由，所有的评论是毫无意义的。

但也正是因为我们不相信，媒体，我们不指望从他们的太多。 毕竟，这是不是作家或编辑，如果他们生活在这样一个系统的故障，不是每个人都能成为英雄。 相对点，从这个角度，我们可以说，中国媒体 - 中国共产党，在这种情况下，这是相同的 - 已经做得很好。

事实上，一个有趣的现象是在7月5日发生的事件之后，媒体的作用，在汉方平息下来。 我们提出的所有那些愚蠢的心变暖有趣的文章 ，但可能在爱的会谈是在民族感情得到了片刻的关键控制 。 你见过多少次世界100 *杀死更比简单彼得在2天不超过国家所采用的温和力量的种族间的冲突？

选择专注于积极，打开归咎于外部因素和和谐的原则，忠于，中国媒体做了有价值的服务和他们的国家，可能避免更多的死亡。 这可能似乎是显而易见的事后，但它可能是一样容易为他们尝试呼吁汉族和灾难的骄傲会随之而来。

自由世界媒体

但是从自由世界的媒体是什么？

新疆事件，对于我们许多人的辩论后，特别感兴趣的反华偏见的西方媒体。 在讨论的最高点，2008年西藏事件后，西方媒体总是有一点，因为他们已经禁止从该地区，他们能不能在他们的报道不准确负责。 现在我们拥有的第一大暴动，这种说法是不正确的地方。 时间是评估结果。 他们的表现如何？

在我看来，它一直令人失望，至少有两个原因。

1 - 在媒体的很大一部分有很明显的偏见，对汉族和反对当局。 并不是所有的人作为极端或无知的例子 ，但原则是明确的：他们的使命是见证中国的制度是多么不人道。 即使其中一些后来主持的报告，其危害已经完成，7月中旬在欧洲旅行时，我发现一个共同的意见，“中国屠宰再次少数民族”。

2 - 幸运的是，自由的媒体是自由和多元化在一定程度上，我们看到了从地面公平报告的一些例子。 特别是我继电讯报“记者彼得·福斯特，谁做了如实报告他所看到的伟大的工作。 然后，我这篇文章 ，事件发生后仅4天，我的绝望，他宣布，他在假期离开。 如Blogger的B＆W猫指出 ，几乎所有的人很快就纷纷效仿，这一天，没有人告诉我们什么是真正发生在新疆。

在此期间，新华社和其他人住在自己的岗位，展示中国和世界，谁真正关心新疆，谁真正关心中国。

一些结论

也有一些是与世界媒体非常错误的，它是比反或亲华的立场，深刻得多。 它拥有更多的做在我看来，它是如何组织的。 记住这一行：

通过追求自己的利益，他经常促进了社会，更有效地当他真正打算促进它。

它是一种乐趣，读亚当·斯密和想象，事实上，“看不见的手”是每天工作，使我们的生活更美好。 然而，这个例子已经明确表示，如果有一个行业的手不能工作，是媒体。 这是，当然，除非我们接受，其作用是产生“我们喜欢听到”以同样的方式，因为苹果的作用是产生我们要使用的计算机的真理。

因为这正是问题。 分钟的媒体认为，有没有明显的中国共产党的罪行，警方正在处理的情况很好，而且有时会实际上是一个共产主义的独裁政权比民主更好的东西，这是不感兴趣。 这不是政治游说或广告公司的压力，甚至，那简直是，大多数读者不喜欢它 。 这是更舒适的生活，用自己坚实的类别，伊斯兰教不好，共产主义不好，民主好。 和“看不见的手说：记者闭嘴。

有很多的谈论互联网对传统报纸的未来，许多分析其消亡的原因。 那么，如何这一件：

一直有一个重大的政治骚乱，在国际舞台上崛起的国家中最重要的20年来最致命的，而媒体仍然甚至没有试图解释事件背后的原因，而不是全职工作作为喉舌非常可疑的合法性，在华盛顿自封的领袖，谁可能与恐怖组织，先后组织100多人杀害。**

我认为互联网和博客，要改变这种状况不是那么理想。 大厅的信息将永远是强大的，它需要的任何形状，并在年底的主流读者会总是读他想读什么。

谁照顾的人，唯一的希望，现在一如既往，是多样性的。 幸运的是，互联网工程，在正确的方向。 访问此链接的博客可以为您提供，如果你花时间仔细阅读与比你的星期天的报纸评论，只是一个例子。

* 种族间的冲突与否是由最初的暴力恐怖主义分子组织，由当时的汉族暴民去与蝙蝠，它显然成为了种族间的冲突。

**更多关于这个即将到来。

从后留下未完成的最后一周 。 一些主要论点读（或听到）在中国的危机的讨论：

时间

经济不会无限增长。 遵循高低循环周期，30年后，它是关于时间。 中国不能违反经济规律，所以必须在未来的X年来的经济衰退。 该国已不准备本身的政治和psicologically面对此期间。 最后，我们肯定有麻烦。

当然，这种说法是不带X的价值不大，时限的许多支持者在过去的失败。 这是一个领域的技术分析师和其他神秘的思想家。 神话也起到了重要作用：灾难在中国的历史，也标志着一个周期结束。 地震这场危机之前，日食在7月，清王朝已经失去了它的美德。 这些参数往往工作更好地与事后位。

市场

世界经济是相互依存的今天。 中国的经济在很大程度上依赖出口和外国直接投资。 在中国的增长，这些外部因素的重量已讨论很多，但无论确切的数字，一些疑问，这是经济的一个显着的电机。 外部电机失败，中国转向内部的投资和消费。 今天，强大的公共投资，主要集中在基础设施和能源，弥补损失。 点击继续»

哦，亲爱的。 这是一场灾难。 我不写了一个月的东西！

现在，当我有一些很好的借口来。 如：春天终于来到中国，我一直行驶在山西尘土飞扬的真正的球位;国土朋友带乐呵呵地侵入上海，他们带来了一些很好的里奥哈葡萄酒。

猫得到了我的博客。

当然，真正的博客精神永远不死。 Blogger的心是一个高度进化的机制，不断吸收来自环境的刺激和他们加工成热的争议。 在电脑时，他将继续超过老虎品脱博客的酒馆，干扰他的表的队友，他突然地址为“用户”的意见......这种行为导致一些关键的情况下，很快我的几个朋友们邀请我请回来在线。 在我最早的方便。

现在，我回来了，令人毛骨悚然认为：中国已经到这时候呢？

被告知，读者，我没有打开报纸，在过去的3周。 这是绰绰有余的国家像中国这样一个快速面目全非。 就我所知，我们仍然在同一个神秘的中国共产党寡头政治统治的中国特色，社会主义制度，仍然相当确定，在世界危机做别人开始，很高兴在一切可能的场合，指出了这一点。 上帝，我最后一次检查，我们要求美国抛售美元并开始使用一些世界宽货币。 喜欢在星际旅行！

我希望我能在周末的循环，将迅速恢复正常服务。 坚持围绕感谢。

你会原谅我写了两行的严重职位。 它的年龄，我们不这样做对任何危机，这些天，有一系列关于这个问题，我不能只让合格的文章。

其中有两个跟2009年的增长预测。 打哈欠。 我们已经看到了新的预测和讨论，其中几乎每个星期，假期后打破它看起来喜欢这里又是各地。 它主要是徒劳的，因为没有足够的投影和未来之间的新的信息，因此，最时代的变化反映了专家的心情比什么都重要。

然而，这是有趣的阅读本PD 文章星期日其中一个“著名经济学家”中国共产党担心，“中国很可能在2009年失去3.9万个就业机会”，如果国内生产总值增长放缓至8％。 好，他再也不用担心，根据等顶级中共官员引述这里的第二天，“ 中国风险失踪8％的增长目标”，这将是“十分艰巨”来实现。 他们也开始改变自己的曲调，再次。

这给我们带来了一个更有趣的课题，虽然它是很难预测的，至少是比空占国内生产总值的统计手段更加有说服力。 我说的失业 。

已经有两个自相矛盾的文章，在上周末，王涛从瑞银和维克多施 。 他们认为这将是在2009年的失业数字的不同位置，这将是他们的社会影响。 在任何情况下，这是值得注意的，他们都用自己的15万（陶）和35-50万（维克多）数字，上述任何计算方式，由人民日报，谁给100万美元的“著名经济学家”每％的国内生产总值的损失。

不用说，我在这个问题上与维克多相对悲观的预测。 部分原因是因为我深深的不信任由银行发行（你很难责怪我）社会经济预测。 但大多是因为维克多提出的论点是多道的固体。 基于对他更深入地了解中国的政治，胜者接着分析在一个更坏的情况下，他的预测可能产生的后果。

并指出，即使政府有能力（ 在这里为他计算）补贴长时间的失业家庭，

目前的裁员浪潮影响一个年轻而充满活力的队列，最有能力对国家实施暴力的集体行动。 没有任何系统的触发器，我们至少会看到一个穗有必要动员人民武装警察（PAP）的单位遍布中国的本地化骚乱。 中央政府也将被迫（他们这样做已经）推出慷慨的失业救济，为外来务工人员和大中专毕业生（300-400亿元人民币左右）。 如果系统触发的发生和不稳定扩散到相当大的城市，我们将看到PAP和部队的大规模调动，可能是大量流血。 在大多数情况下，中共政权仍然生存大规模，跨地区的叛乱。 然而，“整体投资者的信心”将丢失。

“系统触发”我指的是什么？ 我不知道它会是什么。 然而，如果我们回顾历史，它可以是一个广泛的事件，其中包括一个受欢迎的领导者，严重的自然灾害，一个死一般的传染性疾病的蔓延死亡，一小的学生示威演变成暴力冲突，宗教团体...

这种“触发”（我把它叫做“星火”我以前的帖子）的想法是正确的。 正是缺少的元素，这将使所有的差异：当我们的社会紧张局势的行动的人，知识分子起草路线图，混合是一种不稳定的平衡，等待取得联系火花。 当然，维克多不知道究竟这火花会，我也不知道，因为其自身的性质使得它不可预知的。 但我想补充他自己的假设之一：

出现在互联网上 ，延伸到所有的论坛和BBS的同时，正在建立新的网站快，超过了政府可以阻止老，可以创建一个连带效应，这将迫使政府承诺最差的一个大规模的抗议浪潮错误：完全关闭互联网。 这将增加抗议者百万网络游戏成瘾者从他们的网吧发布，构成了一个严重的不稳定军队。

退房今天的文章主题Imagethief上，显示2漂亮的图表，我们在中国有一个前所未有的局面。 此外，昨天的耶利米花岗岩工作室目前的情况，并于1919年五四运动期间做了一个有趣的对比。 在那个时代，有一个明确的“触发”：在第一次世界大战后，包括转移到日本领土的不可饶恕的凡尔赛条约的西方列强对中国的有辱人格的待遇。

一个乐观的最后一个音符：这个周末我学到了一个有信誉的经济学教授在上海生活，最近买了罐头食品提前3个月的情况下，存储的情况得到迅速无力。 In a city like Shanghai, if the logistic networks are disrupted we can run out of food in a matter of days. I am still not quite there myself, but I must admit that, since I heard this, the idea hasn't quite left my head and I tend to go more generous on every visit to Lawson's.

UPDATE: Oops, I completely missed this one. All Roads has been doing the same comparison and drawing his own conclusions. You can see it here .

Barely two weeks after the publication of the Chrter 08, it has already become old news, lost in the indifference of Western media (with notable exceptions ), and erased in China by the cold intervention of the censors. I want to examine here the importance of this document and give some more thought to it and its possible impact.

There is one line in Chrter 08 which concentrates in my understanding the essence of the document:

“Human Rights are not bestowed by a State. Every person is born with inherent rights to Dignity and Freedom. The government exists for the protection of the Human Rights of its citizens.”

This principle, inspired in the long tradition of the Enlightment and the famous 18 ^th century Declarations, is at the heart of the matter. Should these rights apply to China, or are they just an interference of foreign ideas in Chinese affairs? This mostly unspoken debate that rages today in China is putting in doubt the universality of Human Rights, and questioning it in view of the singularities of the Chinese culture.

Of course, this line of argument does not resist the minimum intellectual scrutiny, but it's marketable to avid patriots. One doesn't need to put many brain cells in contact to see that the entire ideology of Maoism -or today's wild capitalism for that matter- are also based on foreign ideas. And that great Ideas, like print and paper, cure to cancer or Human Rights, belong to Humanity.

One of the most influential political thinkers of the Enlightment, who inspired the precursors of this Charter, wrote 3 centuries ago:

“I am a man before being French. For I am necessarily a man, but French only by accident.”

This Charter is up to now the boldest effort in mainland China to speak out for the Universality of Human Rights. Its influence, directly or indirectly, will no doubt be decisive at the time when these questions will have to be seriously debated by the Chinese government. Whether this happens in turbulent 2009 or many years later, China will be in debt with those 303 brave men who dared to stand up for their ideas.

Reflections on the Chrter 08

Before I write these reflections, I want to state my respect for all the authors and supporters of the Charter in China. My points below are not rejecting their fundamental principles, and they should be understood as constructive critic.

1。 The fact of publishing the Charter and obtaining a few thousand signatures in the Mainland is in itself the most important action for Human Rights ever done in China, and it represents a qualitative leap from previous actions which were: 1- Purely reactive, 2- Mostly isolated, 3- Strongly supported by Western actors. This is a serious challenge to the Chinese government, and a very dangerous one for the signers, as it is well known how China reacts to coordinated efforts of this kind.

2。 One important difference from past actions is the positive nature of the movement. The Charter is not merely a reaction or complaint; it is a statement that stands in its own right. Note, however, one important difference between the line quoted above and those in the classic American and French Declarations: this one is formulated in the negative, “Human Rights are not bestowed by a State”. There is still an important element of reaction which will have consequences on the future of the Charter.

3。 A document of this kind should try to seek the maximum consensus in mainland China. This is, in my understanding, the main weakness of the Chrter 08. Going into particular details, such as proposing federalism for Taiwan, or putting in question sacred figures like Deng Xiaoping (by mentioning Tiananmen*) is not working to achieve maximum consensus. Neither is aggressively criticizing Mao's legacy while failing to recognize the important successes of the present regime. These points can be easily utilized by detractors to turn public opinion against the Charter.

4。 Most importantly, from a theoretical point of view, figures like Mao or KMT should have no place in a Charter that wants to unite the Chinese. The recent History of China is an amazing tale of cruel failures and unequaled successes. Events that need to be openly discussed at some point, certainly, and compensation given to the victims. But direct accusations are altogether at a different level and unworthy of sharing the same document with the generous ideals stated in the Charter. These things do not only weaken the Chrter 08 from a practical point of view, but also reduce its soundness as a Universal Statement.

Will Chrter 08 fly into 09

I have written it before in this blog, and I am convinced of this: China has an intelligent government. For each propaganda muncher crying traitor at Liu Xiaobo, there is one thoughtful official that reads the Charter and understands the challenges that his country is facing. The government of China is as skillful to control internal issues as it is unable to control the external image of the country, and it has done an impressive job this time at downplaying and silencing the Charter. The lesson of 1989 is well learnt.

The sad consequence of this is that today the vast majority of the Chinese population has no idea of the existence of the Chrter 08. And I am not only speaking of the masses of peasants. A quick survey among my personal Shanghai friends, all of them with university education and speakers of at least one foreign language, gave discouraging results: Not a single one of them had even heard the term “ lingbaxianzhang ” (Chrter 08) one week after its publication.

It is unlikely that this Charter -or any other Charter for that matter- will in itself spark political change. Its direct impact is limited, and it has probably already run all it had to run. It is not Charters, but Leaders that start revolutions. And when they do, they look back to the works of the intellectuals to give a meaning to their actions. Inevitably, the time will come for political change in China, and Chrter 08 can be the precursor and the basis for future debate.

However, for these changes to happen peacefully they should first reach the largest possible consensus, not only among the intellectuals, but among the people of China. This includes millions of honest middle aged Chinese who still regard Mao as a respectable leader, and who understand that it is him and his followers, with all their faults, that led China from misery and humiliation to the present prosperity.

These people are not criminals or radicals, nor did they consciously cause any suffering to others during Mao's terrible years. They are simple, honest Chinese who lived the time they had to live working quietly for their country. Brainwashed or not, these are today the good people of China. And when the intellectuals draft and sign a charter they should always bear in mind that it is for them that they are fighting.

History shows that there are two ways to change the system in China: the violent revolution way (Mao) and the peaceful consensus way (Deng). I believe that this second way is the one that most Chinese desire for their country, and China has proven in the past that it is capable of taking it successfully.

However, to move the massive inertia of the CPC requires some level of distress, like the one existing prior to 1978. Whether the impact of the crisis in 2009 will be enough to lead to this situation and whether the leaders in China will be willing or brave enough to push the changes, remains to be seen. But 2009 might very well bring the first real opportunity in many years, and this well timed Chrter 08 might still have its word to say in the coming months.

Conclusion and note to censors

I am living in China, where I have always been treated with patience and generosity by the Chinese people. For this I have learnt to love and admire this country. I know my obligations as a guest, and with my work, my life and my writing I try my best to return all that China has given to me.

Therefore, I state here my respect to Chinese of all ideologies. Dear censor, I would much appreciate it if you can continue to afford me the privilege of living in your country, not only physically, but also through my little voice on the internet. Please, do not block my blog.

Finally, my best wishes to Liu Xiaobo and his family in these difficult moments. Lu Xiaobo is the main drafter of the Chrter 08 and at this moment he is still detained by the police. He should be released immediately.

I want to show him all my support here, and give my tiny contribution by spreading his work below.

Happy Christmas.

。

The Principles

These are the noble principles that 303 brave men published in China in 2008:

Freedom . Freedom is at the core of universal human values. Freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly, freedom of association, freedom in where to live, and the freedoms to strike, to demonstrate, and to protest, among others, are the forms that freedom takes. Without freedom, China will always remain far from civilized ideals.

Human rights. Human rights are not bestowed by a state. Every person is born with inherent rights to dignity and freedom. The government exists for the protection of the human rights of its citizens. The exercise of state power must be authorized by the people. The succession of political disasters in China's recent history is a direct consequence of the ruling regime's disregard for human rights.

Equality. The integrity, dignity, and freedom of every person—regardless of social station, occupation, sex, economic condition, ethnicity, skin color, religion, or political belief—are the same as those of any other. Principles of equality before the law and equality of social, economic, cultural, civil, and political rights must be upheld.

Republicanism. Republicanism, which holds that power should be balanced among different branches of government and competing interests should be served, resembles the traditional Chinese political ideal of “fairness in all under heaven.” It allows different interest groups and social assemblies, and people with a variety of cultures and beliefs, to exercise democratic self-government and to deliberate in order to reach peaceful resolution of public questions on a basis of equal access to government and free and fair competition.

Democracy. The most fundamental principles of democracy are that the people are sovereign and the people select their government. Democracy has these characteristics: (1) Political power begins with the people and the legitimacy of a regime derives from the people. (2) Political power is exercised through choices that the people make. (3) The holders of major official posts in government at all levels are determined through periodic competitive elections. (4) While honoring the will of the majority, the fundamental dignity, freedom, and human rights of minorities are protected. In short, democracy is a modern means for achieving government truly “of the people, by the people, and for the people.”

Constitutional rule. Constitutional rule is rule through a legal system and legal regulations to implement principles that are spelled out in a constitution. It means protecting the freedom and the rights of citizens, limiting and defining the scope of legitimate government power, and providing the administrative apparatus necessary to serve these ends.

*For the mention of Tiananmen incidents and discussion on discrepancies in the Charter, see my previous post here .

This week the international observers are observing us with renewed interest: China's Annual Central Economic Work Conference is being held in Beijing Monday to Wednesday, where the country's leaders will decide how to maintain a stable economic growth that will “ improve people's livelihood “ .

Expectations are high on the meeting that will change the World. The trouble is, it will not. Xinhua has just published a first official explanation from NDRC, containing no news. The 40BRMB for “healthcare, education and cultural undertakings”, or the 280BRMB for housing projects were already announced before the meeting. If anything, note that now they have added the “ cultural undertakings ” for extra flavour.

What about all the rebalancing of the economy that we were supposed to see?

Wishful Thinking

What began as a series of advice by some economists has evolved into a streak of generalized optimism, as more people started to believe that Chinese leaders will take the chance now to rebalance the economy. I suspect this very optimistic and profusely quoted World Bank report is partly responsible for this state of mind.

But the rebalancing of China's economy, including a social safety net, health care, and all sorts of measures to bring into the economy the 900 milion rural residents that have been left out is not going to happen now. Because it doesn't make sense.

Here is why:

1- Hu Jintao hasn't been able to implement his rebalancing policies during the first half of the 11 year plan. It is difficult to imagine that the development hawks in the CCP will allow him to implement them precisely now. Especially considering that things like a health care system are costly and someone needs to finance them. How much power do Hu and Wen really have to oppose the immediate interests of business?

2- Chinese like to save money, that is just the way they are, it is a trait of character . No amount of health care or land reform is going to make them spend more in 2009. How would it make sense that the same people who were saving during an economic boom decide to spend more now that there is fear of crisis?

3- All the social rebalancing and Scientific Development of Hu might be great for the long term, but they will not help China weather a difficult 2009. The real worries of the leaders now are: How well will the system resist the social and political tensions that will arise? And how well will Hu Jintao and an already fragile Social Wen resist them in the Party?

An emergency package

But there is a more fundamental objection to the notion that the stimulus package will implement any serious structural change: it is not its role. It is an effort to save an emergency situation and avoid the worst aspects of the crisis (notably unemployment ) getting too serious.

And the sad fact is that great restructurings are not done in advance of crises, they are done afterwards. Hard times comes first, then reform. As an example, a quick look back at one of the historical cases that is most fashionable these days: FDR started his famous New Deal only in 1933, well after the crash of 29. In the meantime what was Hoover doing? Investing in infrastructure, like the Chinese now.

“Social” Stimulus

So will the package improve the livelihood of the peasants? Well, if you consider that buying a new color TV at a discount price is going to change their lifes, then yes. But otherwise, not.

The subsidies to buy home appliances that WSJ mentions here are clever measures, and they will probably be effective to boost the consumption of some farmers in the short term. Which makes sense, because the factories producing those TVs have to keep running, unless someone imagines that a legion of jobless manufacturing workers can be set to construct roads and railways overnight.

But nobody should be fooled: these are no social measures. They are measures to help the manufacturing companies to find a substitution market for the failing exports.

Another related “social” measure which might be hidden in the stimulus budget is an emergency fund to cover the possible cases of layoff riots. Victor Shih estimates it in his blog to be around 120BRMB in the worst of cases. I don't think the government would be announcing this fund publicly, as it is a signal for disaster. But if 120B are missing in the 4Trillion package, now you know were to look.

Conclusions

It is all very healthy to dream, but I am afraid the largest part of China's money in 2009 will go to help the companies resist the crisis and to mitigate the effects of it. The leaders are nervous, and the time is not for experiments.

But enough of stimulus already. Too much has been said, and I have the feeling that there are more important things to watch right now. Namely: Unemployement and Currency.

I have done enough tea leaf reading in my posts as of late, so I will leave these two subjects for next time. But if you want to know what 2009 is going to bring us in China, make sure keep an eye on them.

During my travels these last weeks in Europe and Asia, and on my return to China, I have observed some rather striking contrasts. So much that they made me think a lot about the present state of Chinese economy, and here is a word about it.

Two different ways of seeing the world

I was in Europe for the last time the week that Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy – some call it already “Meltdown Monday”. Pretty scary, but the news didn't seem surprising for anyone there. Ever since the beginning of the year most people had seen the crisis coming. On the Spanish beaches, there were less tourists to be seen this summer, and the variable rate mortgages were getting stiffer for all. The governments that were not in electoral campaign had profusely announced what was to come.

That same week, during a congress in Lyon, the American guest from the marketing consultancy came out to the stand and presented the prospects of our industry up to 2010. He had a very professional looking PowerPoint with some colourful graphs that vaguely reminded me of the slides in a waterpark. The delegates from the rest of the countries looked bored, and only we – New Delhi, Kuala, Shanghai – were hurriedly taking notes. Nobody had shown us that back home.

The whole atmosphere I encountered in Europe was in stark contrast with what I had seen and what I am living still today in China. The crisis has not yet touched this country. The taxi drivers at the airport, who usually know a good deal of economics, don't even mention the word crisis. On the corporate side, the contrast is even bigger. Most of my local clients, who take a WSJ for breakfast every morning, are not only not worried, but they actually look at the future with renewed optimism. They know that a big crisis (危机) is also a big opportunity(机会). In an intuitive language like Chinese, the two words share one single character.

The Great Wall of China

The prevailing thought here seems to be that of the Great Wall of China: Confident and proud of their financial system which has resisted the negative western influence, Chinese at all levels are convinced that the crisis will not hit them hard. To reassure them, there is the precedent of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which devastated the Asian tigers' economies and left China, the only country strong enough to ignore the western blunderer IMF, mostly unscathed.

The media here have already been speaking about the crisis for a while, but always as an external problem, and with a generally positive outlook. The official Chinese press is prudent as usual, but the general idea still seems to be that China shall be the word's bastion of stability against the irresponsible western financial devices. Thus the official discourse goes: Growth to slow down mildy, there will be some restructuring to boost the domestic markets, and we will come out stronger in the end. And in everyone's mind is the opportunity for Chinese companies to go out shopping for deals in capital thirsty western counterparts.

Of course, Chinese are aware that international markets are the weak link, as a large part of the GDP is made up of exports to western countries and FDI. But they count on two factors to ensure the minimum of vital growth required by the system. On one hand, the massive ongoing investments in infrastructure that expand their tentacles day after day to each end of the country. On the other hand, they bet on the development of Asian markets to counter the descent in Western demand.

In view of all this, the new priorities of the technocrats, as they explained last week in our industry briefing in Beijing, are: 1- Develop the markets to find a way out for Chinese production, and 2- Take advantage at the worst of the crisis to go out and acquire foreign companies, and achieve through these means the creation of truly global corporations, with an access to know-how and technology which is much more direct than that obtained from FDI.

The Great Wall of China, the myth that for millennia has defined the Chinese people, is born again in the realm of finance. And, shielded behind it, the sons of the Dragon hope to regain the glory of past times.

A weak point in the Wall

There are however some signs indicating that Beijing's plans might not work out so cleanly. In the first place, although the Chinese financial system, entirely controlled by the government, has indeed remained more conservative than the western one, this does not make it in itself an efficient system. A series of failed investments in the near past, such as Blackstone or Bear Sterns are good examples. And the opacity typical of the large Chinese banks, heavily influenced by the Communist Party, is not precisely the best guarantee of success.

It should be noted as well that the very foundations of the Great Wall, the massive reserves of foreign-currency held by the Chinese government, may not be the solution for every problem. Most people in China fail to understand that the foreign-exchange reserves are not free assets, and cannot be used freely by the government without seriously affecting its monetary policy, or rather, as professor Michael Pettis calls it, its currency regime . Indeed, until the domestic market is strong enough, China will be forced to keep the RMB as low as possible to keep up with the exports, which will completely condition the freedom of its policies.

Looking at the markets, already several observers have started to note the fall in sales of Chinese companies. It is very doubtful that the Asian Markets can grow sufficiently quickly to absorb the growing Chinese manufacturing output. In the end of the day, Asian markets mean India and Russia, the only two countries with a critical mass to match Chinese needs. They are both strangled by serious structural problems to be able to respond quickly enough to China's needs. And the hesitating actions taken for land reform to increase the consumption of peasants might be a good idea in the long term, but it sounds very optimistic to bet on domestic consumption in the short term .

Add to this that Chinese economy, in spite of being in the middle of a development miracle, has severe structural problems, partly derived from its political system, as commenter Will Hutton brilliantly puts forward in his book “The Writing on the Wall” .The lack of a “soft” infrastructure, as he calls the ensemble of characteristics of a civil society that are necessary for the proper functioning of a market economy, makes China a very vulnerable system. It is symptomatic, for example, the total lack of internationally recognized brands, or the many cases of mismanagement, such as the recent case of baby milk contamination.

Beijing taken

But there is a much more worrying aspect, which derives precisely from the Great Wall effect. Historically, the Great Wall of China has not been effective to prevent barbarian invasions, and in a way it has often had the opposite effect. The Han people, protected by their Wall, had a tendency to feel invulnerable and live with their back to the North. In 1644, when the Manchus crossed Shanhaiguan, they took the Chinese by surprise. Beijing fell very quickly (to internal rebels in the frst place), and the last of the Han emperors was left with no choice but to hang himself from a Pagoda tree at the Jingshan Hill, right behind his forbidden city. This is History. But it is a story that has too often repeated itself in China, and which can revive under a new shape in the XXI century.

It is well known, and the economic miracle of the last 30 years is a proof of it, that Chinese economy is guided by a corps of well trained technocrats who know very well their subject. And undoubtedly Zhongnanhai must have a Plan B readily prepared for contingencies. But it seems clear that, as much as they might want to prepare, if the crisis hits hard in China, the scope of reaction of the system is very limited by its own structure and its own people.

Indeed, the great majority of Chinese workers, unlike their western counterparts, are ill prepared to face a crisis, let alone to understand it. Ever since the end of the Cultural Revolution, they have only known 30 years straight of growth. The Chinese people has kept silence since the summer of 89, when Deng and the Red Army made them understand that getting rich comes first. Since then they have accepted injustice, inequality and corruption in exchange for national pride and a notable increase in material conditions. The day the system fails to deliver, due to unemployment, inflation, or other crisis effects, the pact of silence shall be broken.

Unlike our governments, the Chinese Communist Party will be unable to shield itself behind an international economic situation that its own people do not understand. And all its legitimacy, based on economic development and on the dubious legacy of Mao, can vanish overnight. China needs a minimum annual growth to employ the massive wave of peasants that are migrating to its cities, the biggest migration in the history of humanity, as the topic usually goes in China comment books. The leaders know this very well, and the 7.5% of annual growth that they set as a goal in the 11 ^th Five Year Plan is probably about the minimum they estimate for the whole formula to add up.

It the Wall falls in these circumstances, as in the Ming period, the psychological effect could be devastating. And when the forces of the hundreds of millions are unleashed, the bureaucrats in Beijing might have no other way left than the one of the (political) Jingshan hill.

Possible outcomes

We might be right now at a turning point in the process of development of modern China, which will seriously impact the course of history in the XXI century. This year 2008, the one of the 30 anniversary of the beginning of Deng's reform, marked by a series of disasters, and rounded off by the spectacular success of the Olympic Games, might well be the year in which everything changes. In the Chinese tradition, natural disasters, and earthquakes in particular, have long been omen of political change. The last serious earthquake was, precisely, in 1976.

Whatever happens, whether the Chinese Wall resists or not, the international crisis shall precipitate many changes in China, and in the rest of the world we shall do well to keep a watchful eye on these events, because they shall have a major impact on our own lives.

If the Wall resists, Westerners will be forced to admit the validity of the Chinese economic system. Chinese capital shall go out to the world. Taking advantage of the opportunities provided by the crisis, Chinese economy may take in a very short period of time a decisive leap, and under the solid supervision of a regime legitimized by its success, it can spectacularly accelerate its progression to become a superpower. In a very short period of time, the most optimistic of predictions for China can become true.

If the Wall should collapse, on the other hand, Chinese economy may suffer a rapid decline, with almost immediate social and political consequences that may drag the rest of the world into a crisis that could go beyond the purely economic. The outcome in this case is much less predictable, and only mutual understanding and tolerance among the peoples of the world will avoid disastrous results.

So is the crisis hitting us or not?

The greatest economists have historically failed to predict crises, and are rather better at analyzing the problem “a posteriori”, finding out that it was all very clear after all. Crises are by definition unpredictable, so the point of this blog is not to guess whether or not the Great Wall of China shall resist this time the barbarians.

Instead, the conclusion is that, whatever the outcome, the role of China in the world is going to change radically as a result of this crisis. In the meantime, CHINAYOUREN will be here to inform you and keep a watchful eye on the Crisis and the Wall.

EDIT1: Deleted little rant against Western Media. Added shameless promotion of CHINAYOUREN.