圣诞快乐大家。 伤心圣诞节对于中国来说，我们都爱这个国家，相信在自由，尊严和真理的人。

整整一年前，在圣诞节那天，我发表这篇文章关于刘宪章。 我是主动的关键原因是多方面的：它包含的矛盾，它是被动的，而不是主动，这不是一个以团结所有中国人的“宪章”。 但最重要的是，该文件的起草方式，确保它没有飞翔的机会。

这一举措实际上出生时死了，“联合国宪章”，甚至从来没有在09年初在中国的大课题，这是我们当时看了危机和刺激。 党已经从一开始就赢得了比赛，所以什么时候欺负刘现在，一年后呢？ 显然，只是为了树立一个榜样，以确保将关闭，其余的签名，并避免在未来几年内的新举措。 “杀了鸡来吓唬猴子”，中国传统的说。 ，这是不正义的，但一个恶心的黑手党技巧。

即使你不相信中国在民主，即使你认为（像我这样做），西方的虚伪政府给这里甚至没有教训，如果“宪章”可能不是最好的方式来实现的崇高原则它宣称。 即便如此，任何正派的人可以看到这样的文件不应该是一个被剥夺了自由人的一个原因。

党知道这一点，这是再次审查，趴在互联网上，从中国人民隐瞒其卑鄙。

现在这个故事已经拿起了CNN，它使一些噪音。 如果我们很幸运，这远远不够，甚至奥巴马可能会给我们一个难忘的线。 但它不会改变任何东西，因为这一切都是与中国打交道的一部分。 和句子是没有更多或更少比什么可以预计中国政府今天。

刘知道这口井，他决定去，尽管它。 那是因为他是一个理想主义者和英雄。 他将记住。

在这种情况下， 在这里 。 此外，从我自己的博客： 在这里 ， 在 这里和这里 。

这些原则，在中国于2008年出版的303勇士们：

自由 ，自由是普世价值的核心。 言论自由，新闻自由，集会自由，结社自由，在那里生活的自由，罢工，示威，抗议，其中包括自由，自由需要的形式。 没有自由，中国将始终保持远离文明的理想。

不是由一个国家赋予的人权。人权。 每个人与生俱来的尊严和自由的固有权利。 政府为保护其公民的人权存在。 由人民行使国家权力必须被授权。 在中国近代历史的政治灾害的继承是一个政权无视人权的直接后果。

平等。正直，尊严和自由，每个人，不论社会地位，职业，性别，经济状况，种族，肤色，宗教或政治信仰是任何其他的相同。 面前人人平等的法律和社会，经济，文化，公民和政治权利平等的原则必须坚持。

共和，共和，认为权力应政府和利益争夺的不同分支之间的平衡，应送达类似于中国传统的政治理想“在所有的公平性下天堂。”，它允许不同的利益群体和社会的集会，并与人各种各样的文化和信仰，行使民主自治和审议，以达到政府和自由和公平竞争的平等机会的基础上和平解决公共问题。

民主，民主，最根本的原则是人民主权和人民选择自己的政府。 民主具有以下特点：（1）政治权力开始与人民政权的合法性来源于人民。 （2）政治权力的行使通过人作出的选择。 （3）各级政府主要官员职位的持有人有决心通过定期的竞争性选举。 （4）尊重多数人的意志的同时，基本尊严，自由，人权和少数民族的保护。 总之，民主使政府成为一个现代化的手段“的人，由人民，为人民。”

宪政。宪政是通过法律制度和法律法规的实施，是宪法规定的原则规则。 这意味着自由和公民权利的保护，限制和界定合法政府的权力范围，并提供必要为这些目的的行政机构。

您可能听说过的的长期Laobaixing（老百姓），从字面上“百家姓”，中国的老百姓。 在这个网站，专门给他们，他们也被称为LBX的。

laobaixing是一个伟大的词，不仅因为其明显的词源，而且还因为它的内涵是相当不同，从我们的“老百姓”。 从我所看到的，在中国每个人都可以成为Laobaixing取决于它风吹，看在Laobaixing是弥天大罪，你只能享受当人看。 见下文：

这是我看到了几个月前的一个小淮海路巷（ 56minus1是更快地将它张贴）的抗议。 注意白色抗议旗帜，以纪念与其他相同的红色宣传的差异。 的横幅说：“上海交响乐团搬迁到一个新的建设，严重扰乱和破坏社会和谐。”很快消失，有没有办法找出什么它是所有关于。 这个星期，我目睹了这一抗议第二章：

旗帜就是现在像一个海盗旗（借口坏手机摄像头）。黑色文本也更积极的，它写着：“宣传部XX欺骗大家，不关心，如果Laobaixing生或死”。 我问球员谁的旗帜，但小车道menwei紧张地打发我走了。 附近有一张海报，说明问题：车道后面的上海交响乐团建设工程造成的震动和墙壁上的裂缝。 第二天，当所有我又回到，见证绝望的Laobaixing：

这是小车道，LBX的生活。 是的，这是一个Maseratti。 请继续关注的下一个情节，我们将继续无依无靠的困境。

我上ESWN看到本韩寒的“时代”周刊采访时，因为我已经写了关于他之前 ，我想它是值得评论。 这也是有趣的，因为它说明了东方与西方之间的郭怡可怕的误解警告针对最近。 这是，在我看来，关键段落：

尽管他年轻的虚张声势，他已出版了14本书和选集，汉，一般保持距离的敏感问题，如民主和人权。 刘禾说，在哥伦比亚大学中国法与比较文学教授，他计算出的叛逆，体现执政的共产党伪造潜紧凑他这一代已离我们而去，有乐趣，我们不会挑战你的权利运行国家。 “他被称为是一个尖锐地批评政府和编制，但他是不是真的，”刘说。 相反，她说，韩寒是个愿意在过程参与者，渠道心怀不满的青年到消费的能源。 “在他的小说叙事策略的语言是很容易阅读，”刘说。 “基本上是同一本书。”

作家的文学价值判断之前，刘太太使他的叛逆的道德判断：这是不是足够强烈到她的味道，他处理问题不够敏感。 我觉得我不是从真理太远了，如果我说，这总结了学术界的很大一部分认为，西方主流舆论的延伸。 你可能已经注意到，刘女士是在文学方面的专家，而不是在政治上，。 但是，当涉及到中国政治，大家都知道比他们更好。

hecaitou的博客还发布了采访，我们可以看到中国的一些讨论彼此。 允许为奇数的巨魔，这是一个相当均衡的讨论，从一个聪明的中国论坛时，他们不觉得西方的眼睛观察。 也许最重要的评论，给大气的想法，是：

- 相比那些发言刑事犯罪，韩寒有没有胆量。 他只是戏弄，也不敢谈论系统。

- 你的意思是，他需要的是一个烈士呢？ 为了争取自己的权利，即使它仅仅是一个位，获得公民尊严的意识，这些都是需要有人来捕捉他们的事项。 为了能够发言，从内部瓦解这个系统，是真正的高手。

一个东方与西方之间的误解，很大一部分来自我们彼此有不合理的期望。 西方舆论，特别是希望中国的公众人物，自己的政府英勇抗击，甚至自杀。 中国的政治制度是如此邪恶，逻辑，应致力于打击任何值得我们关注的公众人物。

现在，我认为，中国需要政治上的变化和对人权的尊重，我很佩服一些持不同政见者的勇气。 但真正的英雄应该是自愿的，像德蕾莎修女，没有舆论压力的金额都不能创建一个。 更少的外国公众的压力。

万一我有一些天真的读者，以及它只是通知你这里，西方的政策是作为被指控在中国共产党的任意和在国际舞台上的残酷。 和都是同样充满善意。 我们为什么不适用相同的标准，用我们自己的公众人物？ 我们要求我们的作家，以打制？ 他们已经签署了一个紧凑的驾驶抗议反对不公正的世界，而不是消费主义沉睡？

我们不这样做。 我们就像中国的行动，满足自己与他认为，“世界是不公平的，但有位系统中的耐心和信心，它最终将成为一个更好的地方”。以“中国 ”“ 世界”你有中国的主流思想。

“伪善”，我会写。 但我不认为它甚至。 这是简单的封闭意识，无法看到对方的事情。

政府的基本目的之一是为了确保公民的安全，从这个角度来看，中国政府已在乌鲁木齐失败壮观。

首先，它也买不起足够的保护，在7月5日晚上的汉族受害者。 一些错误的决定，最有可能在危机期间，治安部队领导人向中国欠至少有一些解释。

但是，中国共产党在一个更加重要的方式，不能归因于在紧急情况下的简单的人为错误失败。 它已经失败，到了中国的和平共处创造条件，它已失败，很客观， 它规定为自己创造一个和谐的社会 。 由中国中丧生的200名中国是这次失败的明证。

在这个岗位，我将分析一些原因为何种族间的政策可能会失败，可以做些什么来改善情况。 支持和反对新疆独立，这将使一个迷人的讨论有很多很好的理由，但我不会在这里接触的主题。 无论理论说，实际情况是，新疆是和中国应保持在可预见的未来。 大量的汉族和维吾尔族同样可以致电新疆自己的家园，这些民族必须学会为自己着想一起住。 让有建设性的尝试，看看如何可以做到这一点。

中国共产党的意图

我开始说，政府已经失败，这是显而易见的。 但要完全公平的，间关系是一个非常困难的地区，在世界几乎所有的政府未能在一定程度上。 展望新疆位于该地区，并比较类似邻近国家，我们不得不承认，在过去20年来的纪录，新疆远离灾难性的种族间和宗教间的纷争。

有些人认为有问题，原教旨主义没有恶化，自杀式炸弹袭击，战争只是因为汉极端不人道的镇压维吾尔族人口。 这很容易被证明是错误的，并一直是该地区的任何人都知道这么多。 此外，在世界的简单的外观，可以告诉我们，甚至最极端的镇压军队不保证和平，而是相反，在乌兹别克，车臣和巴勒斯坦。 它主要不是强制，而是不断维吾尔沉默的繁荣和稳定。

党的种族间的政策已经失败，但这些政策和自己的实际执法存在很多谈到党的意图的性质。 明确党的目标是要保证中国的统一，稳定与和谐 ，这是不是从来没有施加汉至上。 诚然，中国是一个专制政权，个人的权利并非总是在新疆或在其他任何省份，尊重。 中国需要民主和法治，但是这有什么做压迫维吾尔，汉。

种族间的政策

让我们看看1在这些种族间的政策，其中大多是正面歧视的形式来的本质看：10添加在进入大学，的单一儿童政策的部分排除，配额（而是在高考考试分低 ），在管理和最令人吃惊：一个宽大处理非政治性的罪行，这是众所周知的中国人都在共同的假设的形式明确的政策：“小心与维吾尔人，他们可以携带刀”。

另一组的政策，是注定要避免危险的伊斯兰原教旨主义的。 这些措施包括禁止戴头巾在学校和政府建筑物和其他宗教的服装，未满18岁不可参加在清真寺祈祷，并严格控制神职人员。 虽然我们可以指责这些政策得罪情面，我们不如说，法国也有类似的头巾禁令，并认为中国是其明确禁止宗教从事政治原则相一致。 一个开明的规则，在我看来，更何况在一个地方有合理的理由担心宗教原教旨主义。

其他最近的政策，决定由党在该地区的最高领导人王乐泉 ，是不太合理的。 特别是所有学校任教纯粹普通话是没有意义的，只能引发维吾尔人之间的怨恨。 这一决定的逻辑是所有公民都必须精通普通话，但是这一点是不是技术上的声音，因为它已被证明，一个完整的从早期的双语教育是精通两种语言兼容。

怨气

在七月冲突及其后果的一个有趣的一点是，它从来就没有明确究竟抗议者希望。 世维会了大量的媒体时间，但它并没有提出一个一致的计划。 热比娅致力于她的出现，送出去的伤亡数字，并否认在事件有关她的角色，他们向广东省事件。 作为一个结果，这是很难知道中国的政策，由维吾尔，比其他被“殖民统治和镇压”最反感。 温和的维吾尔语语音的情况下使事情很难理解，王乐泉的手沉重的政府的另一个后果。

在任何情况下，它看起来像它是不是那么多特别是在一个政策问题，而是一个维吾尔和他韩之间的态度问题。 一个整合和相互误解的问题，是典型的种族间的冲突，而不是压迫者和被压迫者之间的冲突，在任何西方国家。 这是许多居住在新疆的外国人的意见是一致的。

积极歧视在西方，许多人已书面，你可能熟悉的问题，它可以创建。 是自然反应，在他们对少数民族不公正的偏袒的不满，在多数组最穷的元素。 但糟糕的是，如“ 2限制的政策， “ 心慈手软“借给自己虐待和经常在少数民族中受益最差个人，开始恶性循环的负选择。

在中国积极歧视尤其是恶性的，因为汉族，鼓励官方媒体，往往采取一些让步，作为对维吾尔人，然后让他们全权委托从事各种歧视行为的确切的证据证明了他们的慷慨，许多情况下甚至没有意识到他们正在不公平的 。

维吾尔人对此有何反应，知觉，而且往往非常真实的歧视通过永恒的受害者的角色，并回顾了的入侵bingtuans ，或稀释了他们的人民，这是几乎没有一个有力的论据：1 -一个大的一部分兵团人口未安装，因为它们在维吾尔地区，2 - 中国人一直在做类似的活动在新疆兵团很久以前的维吾尔人甚至到达3 - 中国企业拥有所有的权利，只要在自己国家的任何地区建立不强行征用的原业主。

一些可能的解决方案

总之，我认为这与其说是一个兵团，压迫或民族稀释的问题，而是一个完整的麻木从双方汉族，维吾尔族，以及最中国政府在新疆，其头只关心的问题讨好北京 。

我知道真正重要的问题 - 缺乏民主和法治 - 不会改变在乌鲁木齐，直到它在北京。 但不看到目前为止，我有中共新疆一些温和的建议，应该很容易尝试和改进的情况。 所有相对简单点，比功率大优惠更多的手势和态度：

• 不要用力现代化喀什宣布它落后 。
• 不要迫使多语学校，为自己的利益的人。
• 在大多数维吾尔地区实施双语学校100％。
• 停止，逐步与机智，宽大政策。
• 执行“反对就业歧视的法律张贴 。

但最重要的，我有一个中国政府的意见，并不只限于新疆：积极促进不同文化和种族之间的相互尊重和理解 。

这种能力在大多数中国各族严重缺乏这种教育的重要组成部分，多年来一直被取代陈词滥调旅游舞蹈和儿童的服装。 这不仅阐明少数民族，而且要赢得别人的尊重，并扩大其影响力，如非洲或南美洲其他地区对中国的麻烦。

我是不是有我不知道比什么是记者。 但是，在现有信息的光，我认为这是值得看看有另一个事件，看看我们做它。 参考纽约时报图上的插图相结合的，这是很难怀疑中国共产党亲，和资料，包括证人的证词是关于详见已发表关于5月5日的事件。

这一切都开始在人民广场的抗议，随后沿解放西路，这是6.30左右满足人民武装警察浓度。 到这里一切都“正常”，在街头骚乱的逻辑：有冲突，可能有一些双方的受害者。 但解放路。 非常中央，很多人生活在那里，一定会发现“纽约时报证人至少数百人已被杀害或囚犯在这一点上提。

但事后，尤其是在8，沿团结和大宛道路的轴，该事件是不通过任何正常的社会秩序混乱的标准。 街头骚乱，可以像其他形式的暴力，有附带损害，但这种情况并非如此。 警方是不存在的，汉小怪不能一直在这么短的时间内举办，并解释这些死亡的唯一途径是，它是蓄意大规模的大屠杀平民居民和路人。 这是与在其他帐户的书面各种报纸一致。

123 *韩已或多或少各方所接受，作为最小的是惊人的数字的行动主要集中在5个小时的空间，在这样一个面积减少发生人员伤亡的初始计数。 在其他骚乱的地区，包括新疆，西藏或中国其他地区，我们可以看到，这个比例是完全超出范围。 这是不是在政治骚乱的斗争中的热量。 这是冷血的迫害，行动只能是痴迷者的工作。

谁是事件背后的

在其8月2日发行，香港新闻周刊“亚洲周刊” 采访 Heyrat孜，维吾尔记者，博客，和艾滋病活动家，什么样的人，谁是不太可能偏袒中国共产党。 heyrat谈到的Hizb，伊扎布特人伊斯兰，伊斯兰解放党，国际泛伊斯兰政党，这是正式的和平，但在欧洲煽动暴力的过去已在被告。 该组织已在新疆的传播非常迅速，在过去的十年。

作为一个在乌鲁木齐的见证，尼牙孜注意到许多示威者和宗教口号，在听到抗议的强烈喀什口音。 这使我想起所有的中国共产党称为东突伊斯兰组织，它实际上可能的威胁发言时间存在与否。 在任何情况下，确实存在一些激进组织清楚地看到，像攻击这一个 ，去年有16名警察被辗过后，冷冷地刀砍和轰炸。

没有证据，我不会指责任何团体，我会犯同样的“固体块”的思想昨天我批评自己。 但到现在我们已经看到，要任何诚实观察员好奇，它当然值得激进伊斯兰教在新疆的领域作进一步调查。 在阿富汗和巴基斯坦等国接壤的地区，它是所有不可想象的，失意的青年，他们越过边境的例子，发现在一个变态的宗教版本的逃生。

响应

中国政府处理危机的比较好，给定的情况下。 其实，主要的反对，人们可以使大多数西方读者喜欢想象相反：周日5日更多的力量应该被用来避免谋杀。

如果你想起来了，你可能会同意，中国共产党的领导是不正是理想的梦想家。 当他们让外国记者到一个地方，那是因为他们知道他们有什么可失去的，而这一次，他们必须一直非常有信心，他们没有责怪。 我们也不得不承认，即使在记者面前，它是在世界上大多数军队不寻常的展示这么多的纪律和克制 ，不分青红皂白对自己人民的种族主义攻击后的中国。

这种态度，这或许解释了为什么他们离开这么早的西方媒体的很大一部分被搞糊涂。 事实上，这是一些耐人寻味的，它可以使一些实力较弱的精神萎缩，来考虑，中国排在第二时间后，四川灾区证明， 有时候，一个独裁政权可以做的事情比一个民主国家。 这需要一些坚实的信念和了解一些自己的理想，能够在世界没有善恶模具。

在任何情况下，毫无疑问 - 西方媒体给了我 - 否则没有理由认为中国的媒体控制和适度的警察行动的双重方法产生最好的结果，在金融危机期间。 不用说，这只是一个短期公式的工程，遏制暴力，更需要从现在开始做，要真正解决新疆问题。 更多关于在未来职位的长期解决方案。

热比娅

我不会在这里浪费时间抹黑热比娅，因为从一开始，她败坏自己。 她没有提供依据，在所有她给媒体的信息，以及她的一些要求是如此荒谬的错误，它实际上是让我觉得她是无辜的：谁是它的业务的人不可能是这种恶劣的骗子。 唯一的解释是，她是完全无能。

点击图片，她的最新索赔的一个例子。

热比娅比什么，给人的印象是，她绝望的是看电视的时间。 她知道，她的成名时间运行结束，她被迫将以往更强的索赔，提高每个去的筹码，以吸引疲惫的观众。 作为博客Twofish的反映，如果她真的关心新疆的未来，她有可能抓住这个机会发送一个和平的讯息，并尝试连接时，他们遭到了残酷的攻击时，其余的中国，也许赢得了尊重温和派。

但已经有人像热比娅，成功的商人，在她的时间如何囚禁，然后发布了由中国共产党，作为事实上的维吾尔人代表结束了吗？ 热比娅被称为扮演一个角色，她扮演它只是罚款。 这是一个已经写入中国共产党，西方媒体和观众，由美国和NED的角色，资助她。 长的故事写在她到达之前，久经考验的情节，与市民的工作，将让所有人都满意。 一遍是达赖喇嘛的传奇，复制粘贴现在的编剧可以放松和享受他们的夏季假期。

热比娅，当然，除了这是没有达赖喇嘛，既不是她的事迹，也不站在她之间的维吾尔justifiy任何此类比较。

重要的问题

现在下降到了许多考虑的关键问题：热比娅在接触，甚至融资安排杀人的极端主义团体，或者是她，因为我怀疑，完全在地面上的现实的无知吗？ 我不认为我们永远也找不到了。 It is difficult to believe that the NED, funded by the American Congress, would sponsor anyone connected with terrorism; but if by mistake they did, I am sure they will take good care to hide all the proofs.

Note that, either way, the NED doesn't come out very well from this story. Sponsoring an opportunist who jumps at the chance to get a name for herself while she coldly observes the killings of dozens is hardly in line with the objectives of a National Endowment for Democracy.

But really, is all this so important? 我不认为如此。 Kadeer will not last, and whether she is guilty or not, the peanuts that the NED pays her do not really change anything. Kadeer with her accommodated expatriate Uyghurs of the WUC cannot possibly control the operations of a terrorist group on the ground. And, as an inspirational role, I doubt it very much that she – a woman, twice married, business and PC background – could ever work for young islamist radicals. She will most certainly not turn into the new bin Laden.

No, the real questions for China and for the World are others:

W ho was really behind the killings of 5th July? How will the prisoners be judged? How are the interethnic policies of the CPC failing? How is this failure feeding the bases of some violent groups? What is the connection of these groups with islamist terrorism and what is the probability of Al-Qaeda joining the party? And why is China the only Security Council country that hasn't received a large-scale attack from islamists, in spite of the years-long Uyghur conflict?

And finally, where are the people that are supposed to be answering all these questions?

*See my comment below for the basis of this number.

Have you been watching Xinjiang TV these days? I am a fan. It's the new Love TV, a 24-7 concentrate of all the corniest efforts by the Chinese official media to promote harmony after the events of 5th July. Smiling kids, flowery dances, long meetings of interethnic neighbour associations discussing love and togetherness. Best served with tequila, lemon, and a grain of salt.

But seriously. It's been a month since the events of Urumqi, and it feels like there hasn't been much done in the way of analysis. All the channels of the media were red hot for a week, but they cooled down as soon as the blood dried on the streets, and no new insights are forthcoming. Too soon the debate has been hijacked by unproven claims of opportunists like Kadeer, and the predictable responses from China. The peace loving Uyghurs and Han who lost their lives in Urumqi deserve better.

So yes, I am consciously watching XJTV, and I suggest you do the same. For lack of anything better and in protest against the rest of the media establishment, both Chinese and foreign. Because no matter how awkward XJTV's efforts might seem, at least this TV station is doing its job.

The events of Xinjiang are more important than the bland Summer coverage would lead us to imagine. It is probably the most deadly single political riot that has happened in China since Tiananmen 1989. It is also the only major case of social unrest where the international press has been granted permission to report from the ground. And there are important lessons to draw from the experience, particularly in the fields of 1- Media and 2- China's policy.

The Chinese Media

I am and I will always be against State-controlled media, and every person I respect here, some CPC members included, agrees with my point of view: without the freedom to blame, all comment is meaningless .

But precisely because we don't believe in that media, we don't expect too much from them. After all, it is not the fault of the writers or editors if they live in such a system, not everyone can be a hero. From this relative point of view, we can say that the Chinese media – or the CPC, which is the same in this case – has done a good job.

Indeed, one interesting phenomenon in the aftermath of the July 5th events is the media's role in calming things down on the Han side. We made fun of all those silly heart warming articles , but probably the love talk was crucial at a moment where ethnic feelings were getting out of control . How many times in the World have you seen interethnic clashes* killing more than a hundred to simply peter out in 2 days with no more than moderate force applied by the State?

By choosing to focus on the positive, turning the blame on external elements and being loyal to the principle of harmony, the Chinese media did a valuable service to their country and probably avoided many more deaths. This might seem obvious now with hindsight, but it might have been just as easy for them to try to appeal to the pride of the Han and disaster would have ensued.

The Free World Media

But what about the media from the free World?

The Xinjiang events were of particular interest for many of us following the debate of anti-China bias in the Western media. In the highest point of the discussion, after the Tibet 2008 events, the Western media always had the point that, since they had been banned from the area, they couldn't be held accountable for inaccuracies in their reporting. Now we have the first major riot where this argument is not valid. The time is to evaluate the results. How well have they fared?

In my opinion, it has been disappointing, at least for two reasons.

1- In a large part of the media there was a clear prejudice against the Han and against the authorities. Not all were as extreme or ignorant as this example , but the principle was clear: their mission was to witness how inhuman the Chinese system is. Even if some of them later moderated their reports, the harm was already done, and when travelling in Europe mid-July I found it a common opinion that “China is slaughtering its minorities again”.

2- Fortunately, free media IS to some extent free and diverse, and we have seen some examples of fair reporting from the ground. In particular I was following the Telegraph journalist Peter Foster, who did a great job of reporting honestly what he saw. And then, I got to this article , only 4 days after the events, and to my despair he announces that he leaves on holidays. Like blogger B&W Cat noted , almost all the others soon followed suit and, to this day, nobody has told us what really happened in Xinjiang.

In the meantime, Xinhua and the others stayed at their posts, showing the Chinese and the World who really cares about Xinjiang, and who really cares about China.

Some Conclusions

There is something very wrong with the World media, and it is something much deeper than a anti- or pro- China stance. It has to do more in my opinion with how it is organized. Remember the line:

By pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it.

It is a pleasure to read Adam Smith and imagine that, indeed, the invisible hand is working every day to make our lives better. And yet, this example has made clear that if there is one industry were the hand cannot work it is the media. That is, of course, unless we accept that its role is to produce “the truths we like to hear” in the same way as the role of Apple is to produce computers we like to use.

Because that is exactly the problem. The minute the media sees that there are no obvious CPC crimes, that the police is handling the situation well, and that actually a communist authoritarian regime sometimes does things better than a democracy, this is not interesting. It is not even about political lobbies or advertising companies' pressure, it is simply that most readers don't like it . It is more comfortable to live with their solid categories, Islamism bad, communism bad, democracy good. And the invisible hand says: journalist shut up.

There is a lot of talk on the internet about the future of traditional newspapers, and many are analyzing the reasons for their demise. Well, how about this one:

There has been a major political riot, the most deadly in 20 years in the most important rising country in the international scene, and the media has still not even attempted to explain the reasons behind the events, instead working full-time as a mouthpiece for a self-appointed leader in Washington with very dubious legitimacy, and who might possibly be connected with the terrorist group who has organized the killings of more than 100 people.**

I am not so idealistic to think that internet and blogs are going to change the situation. The information lobby will always be powerful, whatever the shape it takes, and in the end the mainstream reader will always read what he wants to read.

For the people who care, the only hope, now as always, is in diversity. And fortunately the internet works in the right direction for this. Visit this link for just one example of how a blog can provide you –if you take the time to read carefully- with better commentary than your Sunday paper.

* Interethnic clashes: whether or not the initial violence was organized by terrorist elements, by the time the Han mobs went out with bats it clearly became an interethnic clash.

** More about this upcoming.

Chinese ultra-blogger Han Han is starting a magazine. He announced it previously on his blog, and his last post is already giving the details to send in article drafts and job applications. I learned this last night from my friend 2Ting, who was eagerly preparing her CV and intro letter. The literati of the post-80s are very excited, it appears.

Han's magazine, which still doesn't have a name to avoid imitations, is presented in this blog post . A very Chinese and a very Han Han announcement, interesting for several reasons. But before I speak of it let me give some background on Han Han. I've been planning to write about him for ages, and never found the time until today.

The man

Han Han is 2Ting's idol. He is also the idol of thousands of others post-80s Chinese, and he has become – in spite of himself- a symbol of this often caricatured generation. His bio is interesting: while attending middle school he won a first prize in a famous literary contest, then he dropped out of high school and started writing popular novels and driving race cars. By now he has become one of the best selling authors in China, and, if I got my stats right, the most read personal blogger in the World. Click to continue »

法新社调度说，这一切：

74名工人被确认死亡，数十人被困井下瓦斯爆炸事故后，早于上周日在中国北方的煤矿，打超过14个月的全国地雷最严重的事故。

也有一些是与这些消息非常错误的。 该段应以“改革开始以来最严重的”，甚至“自清的秋天”结束。 但在超过14个月的最差的！

一个矿，尤其是煤矿，是一个危险的工作环境 - 我们已经知道在欧洲以及非常严重的事故。 但是，在21世纪，有74人死亡成为每年例行的大型事件不是简单的“意外”。 这是一家公司的经理，谁是他的工人的生命赌博的自觉行为。 并有责任从政府允许继续操作应该已经关闭很久以前在一些地雷。

为比较起见：仅此一事件是10倍，超过整个三鹿毒奶粉丑闻的致命。 在这种情况下，有广泛的社会反响和governent把它作为一项严肃的和谐问题。 快速审判组织，该公司被拆除，并在三个月内有领导人谴责。 司法可能并不完美，但至少有一些动作。

黑面的农民矿工，但谁发言？ 有没有独立的矿工工会组织的抗议。 广大市民关注的安全问题 - 与毒奶粉永远不会把自己的风险福祉。 ，国际和中国的媒体，将已被遗忘在一个多星期的事件。

很快，我们都将注意力转向到不同的消息，并在此期间，矿工们仍然会走下去，小到他们未来的天然气口袋挖一点。

你会原谅我写了两行的严重职位。 它的年龄，我们不这样做对任何危机，这些天，有一系列关于这个问题，我不能只让合格的文章。

其中有两个跟2009年的增长预测。 打哈欠。 我们已经看到了新的预测和讨论，其中几乎每个星期，假期后打破它看起来喜欢这里又是各地。 它主要是徒劳的，因为没有足够的投影和未来之间的新的信息，因此，最时代的变化反映了专家的心情比什么都重要。

It was however interesting to read this PD article Sunday where one CPC “renowned economist” worried that “China is likely to lose 3.9 million jobs in 2009″ if GDP growth slows to 8 percent. Well, he need not worry anymore, according to other top CPC officials quoted here the very next day, “China Risks Missing 8% Growth Target”, which will be “extremely arduous” to achieve. They are starting to change their tune, again.

And this brings us to a more interesting subject which, although it is as difficult to predict, at least it is more telling than the empty statistical artifice of GDP. I am speaking of Unemployment .

There has been two contradicting articles over the weekend, by Wang Tao from UBS and by Victor Shih . They hold different positions as to what will be the unemployment figures in 2009 and what will be their social impact. In any case, it is worth noting that both of them, with their 15 Million (Tao) and 35-50 Million (Victor) figures, are way above any calculation by the “renowned economist” of the People's Daily, who gives 1 Million for every % of GDP lost.

Needless to say, I am with the relatively pessimistic predictions of Victor on this issue. Partly because I deeply distrust socio-economic projections issued by banks (you can hardly blame me on that). But mostly because the arguments that Victor puts forward are more solid than Tao's. Based on his deeper knowledge of Chinese politics, Victor goes on to analyze the possible consequences of his prediction in a worse-case scenario.

Noting that, even if the government has the capacity (as he calculated here ) to subsidize the unemployed families for an extended period,

the current wave of layoffs affects a young and vibrant cohort most capable of carrying violent collective action against the state. Without any systematic triggers, we at least will see a spike in localized riots which necessitate the mobilization of People's Armed Police (PAP) units all over China. The central government would also be compelled to (and they are doing so already) roll out generous unemployment benefits for migrant workers and college graduates (to the tune of 300-400 billion RMB). If a systematic trigger occurs and instability spreads to a sizable city, we will see the large scale mobilization of both PAP and army units and possibly substantial bloodshed. In most scenarios, the CCP regime would still survive a large scale, cross regional rebellion. However, “overall investor confidence” will be lost.

What is the “systematic trigger” which I refer to? I don't know exactly what it would be. However, if we look back in history, it can be a wide range of events, including the death of a popular leader, a serious natural disaster, the spread of a deathly infectious disease, a small student demonstration turned violent, religious groups…

This idea of the “trigger” (I called it the “Spark” on my previous post) is right on. It is exactly the element that is missing and the one that will make all the difference: when we have social tension to get the people in action, and intellectuals to draft the road map, the mix is an unstable equilibrium waiting to get in contact with a spark. Of course, Victor doesn't know what exactly this spark would be, and neither do I because its own nature makes it unpredictable. But I would add to his hypothesis one of my own:

The emergence of a massive wave of protest on the internet that extends to all the forums and BBS simultaneously, with new sites being created faster than the government can block the old, which could create a cascade effect that would force the government to commit its worst mistake: close down the internet altogether. This would add to the protesters millions of online game addicts released from their cybercafes, constituting a serious army of instability.

Check out today's post by Imagethief on the subject, showing with 2 nice graphs that we have an unprecedented situation in China. Also, yesterday Jeremiah of the Granite Studio did an interesting comparison of the present situation and the one in 1919 during the May 4th movement. In those times, there was a clear “trigger”: the humiliating treatment of China by the Western powers in the Treaty of Versailles after the First World War, including the unforgivable transfer of territories to Japan.

One last note for the optimists: this weekend I learnt of a reputable economics professor living in Shanghai who recently bought 3 months advance of canned food to store in case the situation gets rapidly unmanageable. In a city like Shanghai, if the logistic networks are disrupted we can run out of food in a matter of days. I am still not quite there myself, but I must admit that, since I heard this, the idea hasn't quite left my head and I tend to go more generous on every visit to Lawson's.

UPDATE: Oops, I completely missed this one. All Roads has been doing the same comparison and drawing his own conclusions. You can see it here .

As I was answering to a comment on the Chrter 08 post , I felt a sudden urge to find the original context for one of my favourite quotes, which stands on Instructions as a principle of this blog.

That is how I found again this beautiful passage which I can't resist copying here, although I know in these fast times some readers may find it somewhat old (231 years to be exact). It was written by a watch-maker, inventor, playwright, musician, politician, publisher, spy, arms-dealer, and notorious activist of the American and French Revolutions:

They tell me that if in my writing I will mention neither the government, nor public worship, nor politics, nor morals, nor people in office, nor influential corporations, nor the Opera, nor the other theatres, nor anybody that belongs to anything, I may print everything freely, subject to the approval of two or three censors.

Figaro satirizes. And then goes on to say:

Foolish things in print are important only where their circulation is interfered with; without the freedom to criticize, no praise is flattering, and none but little men are afraid of little writings.

So beautiful and so up to date, every bit of it. A few bureaucrats in this country should read this, and realize that already 231 years ago their same little game was well known to the people. And that some day, in China too, the attitude of silencing, detaining, firewalling and suppressing the freedom of speech will be remembered as one of the “4 Shames” of the past.

Mind you, I know that quoting a comic writer, even if he is a classic of Literature and Revolution, is not exactly a solid scientific argument. But who speaks of science here? This is all about common sense, about opening your eyes and seeing what is obvious, and about concepts so simple that a child can understand. If I am not allowed to criticize you, all of my praise will be empty of value.

And this leads us to speak of the latest little wave of protest in the China blogs. Like it happens every now and then, all the main blogs are (rightly) complaining against the new Net Nanny '09 campaign. The adult babysitting agency CIIIRC has published a list of websites who have been caught posting “vulgar” pictures of beautiful ladies. And warned them to “seriously clean up their unhealthy content”.

I don't think there can be a better example of a petty departure getting large circulation thanks to the censors. And if I know my fellow men, Chinese or Western alike, I am ready to bet that the offending sites have noticed a dramatic increase in traffic today since the publication of that list, and that blogs like Danwei have done a great service to the community by putting all the links together on one single page for us to check. 好极了！

Note: Translation of “Marriage of Figaro” by Edward J. Lowell in the book “The Eve of the Revolution”. Some slight modifications from my part.

Barely two weeks after the publication of the Chrter 08, it has already become old news, lost in the indifference of Western media (with notable exceptions ), and erased in China by the cold intervention of the censors. I want to examine here the importance of this document and give some more thought to it and its possible impact.

There is one line in Chrter 08 which concentrates in my understanding the essence of the document:

“Human Rights are not bestowed by a State. Every person is born with inherent rights to Dignity and Freedom. The government exists for the protection of the Human Rights of its citizens.”

This principle, inspired in the long tradition of the Enlightment and the famous 18 ^th century Declarations, is at the heart of the matter. Should these rights apply to China, or are they just an interference of foreign ideas in Chinese affairs? This mostly unspoken debate that rages today in China is putting in doubt the universality of Human Rights, and questioning it in view of the singularities of the Chinese culture.

Of course, this line of argument does not resist the minimum intellectual scrutiny, but it's marketable to avid patriots. One doesn't need to put many brain cells in contact to see that the entire ideology of Maoism -or today's wild capitalism for that matter- are also based on foreign ideas. And that great Ideas, like print and paper, cure to cancer or Human Rights, belong to Humanity.

One of the most influential political thinkers of the Enlightment, who inspired the precursors of this Charter, wrote 3 centuries ago:

“I am a man before being French. For I am necessarily a man, but French only by accident.”

This Charter is up to now the boldest effort in mainland China to speak out for the Universality of Human Rights. Its influence, directly or indirectly, will no doubt be decisive at the time when these questions will have to be seriously debated by the Chinese government. Whether this happens in turbulent 2009 or many years later, China will be in debt with those 303 brave men who dared to stand up for their ideas.

Reflections on the Chrter 08

Before I write these reflections, I want to state my respect for all the authors and supporters of the Charter in China. My points below are not rejecting their fundamental principles, and they should be understood as constructive critic.

1。 The fact of publishing the Charter and obtaining a few thousand signatures in the Mainland is in itself the most important action for Human Rights ever done in China, and it represents a qualitative leap from previous actions which were: 1- Purely reactive, 2- Mostly isolated, 3- Strongly supported by Western actors. This is a serious challenge to the Chinese government, and a very dangerous one for the signers, as it is well known how China reacts to coordinated efforts of this kind.

2。 One important difference from past actions is the positive nature of the movement. The Charter is not merely a reaction or complaint; it is a statement that stands in its own right. Note, however, one important difference between the line quoted above and those in the classic American and French Declarations: this one is formulated in the negative, “Human Rights are not bestowed by a State”. There is still an important element of reaction which will have consequences on the future of the Charter.

3。 A document of this kind should try to seek the maximum consensus in mainland China. This is, in my understanding, the main weakness of the Chrter 08. Going into particular details, such as proposing federalism for Taiwan, or putting in question sacred figures like Deng Xiaoping (by mentioning Tiananmen*) is not working to achieve maximum consensus. Neither is aggressively criticizing Mao's legacy while failing to recognize the important successes of the present regime. These points can be easily utilized by detractors to turn public opinion against the Charter.

4。 Most importantly, from a theoretical point of view, figures like Mao or KMT should have no place in a Charter that wants to unite the Chinese. The recent History of China is an amazing tale of cruel failures and unequaled successes. Events that need to be openly discussed at some point, certainly, and compensation given to the victims. But direct accusations are altogether at a different level and unworthy of sharing the same document with the generous ideals stated in the Charter. These things do not only weaken the Chrter 08 from a practical point of view, but also reduce its soundness as a Universal Statement.

Will Chrter 08 fly into 09

I have written it before in this blog, and I am convinced of this: China has an intelligent government. For each propaganda muncher crying traitor at Liu Xiaobo, there is one thoughtful official that reads the Charter and understands the challenges that his country is facing. The government of China is as skillful to control internal issues as it is unable to control the external image of the country, and it has done an impressive job this time at downplaying and silencing the Charter. The lesson of 1989 is well learnt.

The sad consequence of this is that today the vast majority of the Chinese population has no idea of the existence of the Chrter 08. And I am not only speaking of the masses of peasants. A quick survey among my personal Shanghai friends, all of them with university education and speakers of at least one foreign language, gave discouraging results: Not a single one of them had even heard the term “ lingbaxianzhang ” (Chrter 08) one week after its publication.

It is unlikely that this Charter -or any other Charter for that matter- will in itself spark political change. Its direct impact is limited, and it has probably already run all it had to run. It is not Charters, but Leaders that start revolutions. And when they do, they look back to the works of the intellectuals to give a meaning to their actions. Inevitably, the time will come for political change in China, and Chrter 08 can be the precursor and the basis for future debate.

However, for these changes to happen peacefully they should first reach the largest possible consensus, not only among the intellectuals, but among the people of China. This includes millions of honest middle aged Chinese who still regard Mao as a respectable leader, and who understand that it is him and his followers, with all their faults, that led China from misery and humiliation to the present prosperity.

These people are not criminals or radicals, nor did they consciously cause any suffering to others during Mao's terrible years. They are simple, honest Chinese who lived the time they had to live working quietly for their country. Brainwashed or not, these are today the good people of China. And when the intellectuals draft and sign a charter they should always bear in mind that it is for them that they are fighting.

History shows that there are two ways to change the system in China: the violent revolution way (Mao) and the peaceful consensus way (Deng). I believe that this second way is the one that most Chinese desire for their country, and China has proven in the past that it is capable of taking it successfully.

However, to move the massive inertia of the CPC requires some level of distress, like the one existing prior to 1978. Whether the impact of the crisis in 2009 will be enough to lead to this situation and whether the leaders in China will be willing or brave enough to push the changes, remains to be seen. But 2009 might very well bring the first real opportunity in many years, and this well timed Chrter 08 might still have its word to say in the coming months.

Conclusion and note to censors

I am living in China, where I have always been treated with patience and generosity by the Chinese people. For this I have learnt to love and admire this country. I know my obligations as a guest, and with my work, my life and my writing I try my best to return all that China has given to me.

Therefore, I state here my respect to Chinese of all ideologies. Dear censor, I would much appreciate it if you can continue to afford me the privilege of living in your country, not only physically, but also through my little voice on the internet. Please, do not block my blog.

Finally, my best wishes to Liu Xiaobo and his family in these difficult moments. Lu Xiaobo is the main drafter of the Chrter 08 and at this moment he is still detained by the police. He should be released immediately.

I want to show him all my support here, and give my tiny contribution by spreading his work below.

Happy Christmas.

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The Principles

These are the noble principles that 303 brave men published in China in 2008:

Freedom . Freedom is at the core of universal human values. Freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly, freedom of association, freedom in where to live, and the freedoms to strike, to demonstrate, and to protest, among others, are the forms that freedom takes. Without freedom, China will always remain far from civilized ideals.

Human rights. Human rights are not bestowed by a state. Every person is born with inherent rights to dignity and freedom. The government exists for the protection of the human rights of its citizens. The exercise of state power must be authorized by the people. The succession of political disasters in China's recent history is a direct consequence of the ruling regime's disregard for human rights.

Equality. The integrity, dignity, and freedom of every person—regardless of social station, occupation, sex, economic condition, ethnicity, skin color, religion, or political belief—are the same as those of any other. Principles of equality before the law and equality of social, economic, cultural, civil, and political rights must be upheld.

Republicanism. Republicanism, which holds that power should be balanced among different branches of government and competing interests should be served, resembles the traditional Chinese political ideal of “fairness in all under heaven.” It allows different interest groups and social assemblies, and people with a variety of cultures and beliefs, to exercise democratic self-government and to deliberate in order to reach peaceful resolution of public questions on a basis of equal access to government and free and fair competition.

Democracy. The most fundamental principles of democracy are that the people are sovereign and the people select their government. Democracy has these characteristics: (1) Political power begins with the people and the legitimacy of a regime derives from the people. (2) Political power is exercised through choices that the people make. (3) The holders of major official posts in government at all levels are determined through periodic competitive elections. (4) While honoring the will of the majority, the fundamental dignity, freedom, and human rights of minorities are protected. In short, democracy is a modern means for achieving government truly “of the people, by the people, and for the people.”

Constitutional rule. Constitutional rule is rule through a legal system and legal regulations to implement principles that are spelled out in a constitution. It means protecting the freedom and the rights of citizens, limiting and defining the scope of legitimate government power, and providing the administrative apparatus necessary to serve these ends.

*For the mention of Tiananmen incidents and discussion on discrepancies in the Charter, see my previous post here .

This week David Dollar has a very informative post: On exchange rates, think multilaterally . It is an analysis of the RMB exchange rates and their change over time. Using one of those useful trade-weighted indexes that the World Bank likes so much, David goes over the history of RMB exchange rates from the 90s to now, drawing conclusions on the policies of the Chinese government and their consequences at each stage.

After some retrospective paragraphs that I absolutely recommend to read to anyone who wants to understand past Chinese currency policy, he goes on to speak of the future:

There is a lot of potential for misunderstanding in this area. China feels that it has had a rapid effective appreciation and now wants to see what the real effects are before going further.The US is probably looking at a substantial devaluation of the dollar against other major currencies, as the immediate financial crisis wanes and the US needs to rein in its consumption and save more. If that happens, it is not in China's interest to follow the dollar down. It will take good coordination between China and the US to resolve their large imbalances in a smooth manner.

And I have the same objection that I always make to the World Bank Chinese publications: they stick to strictly economic terms, and avoid Chinese politics as much as possible. OK, I can understand being part of the WB he is not as free as this anonymous blog, and he prefers to not stick his nose into sensitive matters. The trouble is, looking at the economy without the politics around it leaves you completely blind to see the immediate future.

I am not even close to having the experience of David Dollar or the number crunching capabilities of the World Bank, but I have eyes to see that something very big is missing in his picture. Multilateralism? Misunderstanding? Before any misunderstanding can actually happen, there has to be a will to understand. And this is far from sure at this point.

I just copy here part of the comment I wrote on his blog to show what I mean:

Still, as you imply yourself in the post, economists are always better at explaining things in retrospect. I am not sure at all that Chinese authorities will do the right thing in 2009.

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We need to keep in mind that Chinese politics always give priority to internal issues over external image or foreign affairs in general. Examples of this abound in recent times, such as their attitude towards protesters during the Olympics, or their cancellation of latest EU Summit because of DL, etc.

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If it comes to a point where unemployment gets even slightly out of control I have no doubt that Beijing will do what it takes to avoid internal problems. Including playing with the RMB, engaging in trade wars, and all the while siding with the “people” against the “Western menace”.

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We should keep an eye on Unemployment and Currency.