Dalai, the French and The Art of War
Written by Julen Madariaga on December 3rd, 2008
Today was a pretty stressful day in the office, but in between meetings I was able to join a lively discussion on the Fool’s Mountain about the latest Dalai incident.
To wit, the French President said he will meet the DL in Poland during a ceremony in honour of Lech Walesa. China immediately threatened EU with cancelling the 11th EU-China Summit this week, and has indeed cancelled it. BBC tells it here. Also see the reaction of Chinese netizens to Pomfret’s article and the account of Xinhua.
Here are my thoughts as posted on the Mountain (minus rants and comebacks):
Is China using France?
Is China using France strategically, as a wedge to divide EU, following the classic “divide and win” from SunTzu’s Art of War?
Could be, but this is nothing new, all the world powers use this old trick when negotiating with EU. The fact is China will listen or not to EU representatives depending on the power it perceives they have, and depending on China’s own interests. For economic aspects such as tariffs, EU does have power and will be listened. In other fields it can be completely ignored. Points to keep in mind:
1- The EU has a problem with unity, and this has nothing to do with China’s policies.
2- China has a problem to deal with DL, and this has nothing to do with the Sarko meeting.
3- Universal Rule in International Relations: If you need to distract attention bash the French.
4- DL is not a terrorist. Comparing him to bin Laden is low and slanderous.
5- China is crying for nothing: In Europe anyone could speak with the equivalent of DL.
For example, the president of the Basque Country (who actively demands independence from Spain) has met up with authorities of many countries and sends representatives regularly to support Basque industry in Shanghai. No whining from Spain, why? because unlike bin Laden, he does NOT support violence.
What are the consequences of this incident? And the real Reasons?
In fact, there shouldn’t be any serious practical consequence of missing this Summit. The real meeting is the one that will happen in April when the G20 + Obama meet to speak of the Crisis.
This little conflict with the French is just a classic IR trick to create some noise. Perhaps Zhongnanhai have decided that it’s time to rally the people in advance of the social shocks of the Crisis. Or perhaps they are preparing the way for a conflictive period in foreign affairs when China tries to implement protectionist/low RMB policies, strongly opposed by the West.
Chinese leaders are well known for thinking one step ahead. Hopefully I am wrong with this one.
Please comment. No swearwords.
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土木坛子 said:
3
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Just one note about huanqiu.com, which hosted the survey: it’s the most populist and nationalist newspaper you can find in the country. I’m not surprised that 98% there agree with the decision…
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4
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Hi Wukailong! Thanks for coming over. Yeah, Global Times (run by People’s Daily)is not a reliable source. Neither is Xinhua.
With this link, same as with the reader on the sidebar, I just meant to show the position of the Chinese official press, which is as usual. Real support is surely not 98%, but I think it is safe to say that a majority of Chinese today are in line with government position regarding DL.
PS. There is a section of Global Times that IS quite cool. Check the link 美女 on the header of huanqiu.com
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4
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Good job ULN,
I agree with your views.
It has been a constant in the history of China (as old as the history of mankind … think about the Roman empire).
Additionally, a Chinese dissident in Paris has recently raised the fact that the social situation in China these days is very bad.
The only thing that the CCP is afraid of is a breakance of the social contract they have with the population … in that case, a nationalist push is perfectly in their interests.
Un saludo. BT.
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Hi! Thanks BT. Yes, the nationalist push is the little touch that you need to make harmonious the unharmonious.
PS. Where are the hordes of Chinese commenters? I’m just back home from the bar and I was kind of expecting to see loads of fenqing flames, my blog hacked and my human flesh searched for!
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4
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Ah ULN, don’t provoke the ren rou sou sou
* mode FQ on*
How can you dare to open your mouth when you filthy cave dwellers slaughtered noble knights very deceitfully! You are just a bunch of traitors that attack people in the mountain defiles! Don’t you see the truth that you and your violent rugby players are just a tool of dark forces of brutal Imperialism!!!
* mode FQ off*
More seriously, the FM staff is currently quite busy and is looking for writers. I think your excellent posts would be greatly appreciated. I move to a new job, so I might be quite busy next month, but I will write some ASAP.
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Hi, thanks. I will definitely be crossposting something over to FM soon. I like that site and I am in debt with them since they helped me get some readers when they published my first post of this blog.
And if it was not enough, now I am trying to steal some commenters from their forum! (sorry FM)
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6
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Good analysis of the situation, uln. Obviously the Dalai Lama is nothing like Bin Lala, even if he is “controversial” in China.
I think unfortunately, from China’s POV, it can’t divide Europe by cancelling a meeting like this. China is attempting to override a sovereign nation’s foreign policy. Yes, European states would like China to help out like Japan is by making money available to the IMF, buying up bust companies, etc. But there are limits to what they will do in return for China helping out, not least because China is being hurt by the global crisis and it is in its own interest to contribute.
I remember back in 2005 China thought that it had a lifting of the arms embargo wrapped up. Hu then went on a tour promising $billion trade deals. When increasing opposition from the European Parliament and the US led to a delay of the embargo being lifted, and then canned, China couldn’t understand why. It had thrown a lot of money around, so surely it had paid more than enough to get what it wanted.
For some reason China thinks that everything has a price tag. Well that’s not the case, especially in the developed world. African states will bend over backwards in regards to foreign policy because many need the money. Europe is not nearly as desperate. Besides there isn’t that much that China can do. If someone else can’t pull them out of recession, no one can.
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Hi Raj, thanks for coming over.
There is a very interesting post by Michael Pettis this week. He says: China as a net exporter has more to lose than to win in a dispute with the countries that buy its products.
IMO, China has an intelligent government, or at least some of the leaders in ZNH understand the situation well. This Dalai Lama incident has more to do with Chinese internal politics than anything else.
Everything has a price tag: well, some people think this is true. A different question is what price can China afford to pay.
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“if I don’t get comments on my blog after this post, picture and all, I will give up trying to attract commenters altogether.”
I just realized that a lot of Chinese actually don’t know what DL looks like, and it used to be the same way with the Taiwanese leaders. When a magazine for the first time had a picture of a Taiwanese politician, Lian Zhan, on its cover, a Taiwanese journalist went around asking Beijingers who they thought was in the picture. Most people said it was Chen Shui-bian. When the journalist asked one guy “do you really think it’s Chen Shui-bian”, the guy thought for a while and said:
- Well, Chen Bian-shui, then!
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uln: “IMO, China has an intelligent government, or at least some of the leaders in ZNH understand the situation well.”
I think so too, but I believe the government is in a difficult position where it has to cater to both moderates and nationalists. Hu and Wen constantly have to toe the line but they won’t sacrifice any economic interests in the long run, which is why I believe this incident won’t have any long-term effects. Otherwise they would have had serious, probably secret, negotiations with the European side.
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Yes sure, Hu’s team has to deal with many different opinions within the party. And isn’t it amazing that they always manage to give the impression of a solid block? I mean, they must be spending a lot of energy to keep the thing in control.
As for the DL: hmm. I would think most Chinese know how he looks. You get pictures sometimes in the Chinese press describing him as a snake or something like that… in any case, I don’t know if it is Chinese or Western, but one thing I can tell you: this post has got more reads in one day than any thing I ever wrote before. Put DL, French and War together in one title is the secret to triple your traffic.
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Hi ULN,
Yes, start something about Tibet, and you are sure to draw attention
.
They give the impression of being a block because they want to look like this. In the reality, that’s political fights after political fights. The difference with open countries is that everything is in zhongnanhai, secret, and that we can just try to guess what’s happening.
Finally, it’s just like China … it looks like a block, but it’s a very diverse place when people really talk to you.
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